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U of M TCORS Project 3: Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Polytobacco Use and Associated Health Disparities

Principal Investigator(s): Nancy Fleischer and David T. Levy

Funding Mechanism: National Institutes of Health – TCORS Grant

ID number: 1 U54 CA229974-01

Award Date: 9/14/18

Institution: University of Michigan and Georgetown University


More information about how the evolving tobacco marketplace will shape the patterns of tobacco use, their subsequent long-term health effects, and potential disparities by socioeconomic status (SES) and race/ethnicity would be useful. Simulation modeling can predict future health outcomes and provide insights into how different policies and regulations may affect disparities in tobacco use and downstream health outcomes. The goal of this project is to estimate tobacco-related health disparities associated with tobacco use and to investigate the impact of specific tobacco control policy options on these disparities. Study aims are: (1) to estimate current disparities in single- and multi-product tobacco use by SES and race/ethnicity and monitor changes in consumption patterns over time; (2) to estimate the impact of past tobacco control policies on patterns of tobacco and nicotine product use by SES and race/ethnicity; (3) to estimate tobacco-related health disparities in all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and other health outcomes associated with single- and multi-product tobacco use and the role of past policies in influencing these outcomes; and (4) to model the impact of potential new policies on tobacco use and on tobacco-related health disparities associated with single- and multi-product tobacco use. To address Aim 1, researchers will use five datasets to characterize single- and multi-product tobacco use, including initiation, cessation, relapse, and switching, across demographic groups. To address Aim 2, researchers will use literature reviews, data analyses, and expert panels to determine a range of plausible values for the effect of different potential policies on initiation, cessation, relapse, and single- and multi-product use for key sociodemographic subgroups. Using results from Aims 1 and 2, Aims 3 and 4 will expand simulation models to project the consequences of tobacco use on tobacco-related health disparities. Results will indicate which potential tobacco control policies may be most effective in reducing tobacco-related health disparities due to tobacco use over time.


U of M TCORS: Center for the Assessment of the Public Health Impact of Tobacco Regulations Resources