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Modeling the Public Health Impact of a National Menthol Cigarette Ban

Principal Investigator(s): Sarah D. Mills
    
Funding Mechanism: NIH Grant

ID number: 1K01CA242530-01

Award Date: September 13, 2019

Institution: University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill


The goal of this project is to use microsimulation modeling to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on tobacco use and tobacco-related disease, specifically cardiovascular disease (CVD) and tobacco-related cancers. Study aims are: (1) to identify trajectories of cigarette use over time among youth and adults using longitudinal, nationally representative survey data; (2) to conduct a review of studies examining the effects of a menthol cigarette ban on product use; and (3) to build a model of smoking and tobacco-related disease to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers. To achieve Aim 1, the researcher will compute transition probabilities of tobacco use behavior (frequency, intensity, flavor preference) over time using Population Assessment on Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data. To achieve Aim 2, the researcher will synthesize the literature on the impact of a menthol cigarette ban and conduct a meta-analysis to pool data from individual studies, generating critical information for simulation modeling. To achieve Aim 3, the researcher will build a microsimulation model of tobacco use and tobacco-related diseases, incorporate the effect of a national menthol cigarette ban on cigarette use, and estimate changes in smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers that would occur in the total population and in specific socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups if a ban were implemented. Findings may inform potential regulatory activities on menthol cigarettes.