Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Regulations on US Future Trends of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Principal Investigator: Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero
Funding Mechanism: National Institutes of Health - Grant
ID Number: 1K01CA260378-01A1
Award Date: 9/14/2021
Institution: Georgetown University

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The objective of this research project is to build a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) model based on individual cigarette smoking histories that will be used to predict the long-term population impact of two FDA tobacco regulatory scenarios on COPD disease burden. Study aims are: (1) to analyze data from a database of US adults with COPD (the COPDGene Study) to determine the impact of smoking behavior changes on lung function decline and COPD mortality; (2) to develop a COPD simulation that estimates future COPD incidence, prevalence and COPD-associated respiratory and lung cancer deaths based on individual smoking histories; and (3) to predict possible future trends in COPD morbidity and mortality under two FDA tobacco regulatory scenarios: cigarette pack and advertisement graphic health warnings (implementation of a Final Rule) and a menthol cigarette ban (planned). Findings will provide new information about the impact of tobacco control policies on COPD trends.