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Modeling the Impact of Flavor Bans Among Young Adult Tobacco Users Using Discrete Choice Experiments and Agent-Based Modeling

Principal Investigator(s): Yong Yang
    
Funding Mechanism: Intra-Departmental Delegation of Authority

ID number: 1R03DA048460-01A1

Award Date: August 9, 2019

Institution: University of Memphis


The goal of this study is to examine the impact of two flavor ban alternatives on young adults (aged 18-34) who are recent (past 30-day) users of tobacco products including electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). Products studied will include menthol cigarettes; flavored cigars, cigarillos, and little cigars; and menthol and non-menthol flavored ENDS. Study aims are: (1) to assess product switching after implementation of a flavor ban and examine related determinants; (2) to estimate consumer response to hypothetical flavor bans using discrete choice experiments; and (3) to examine the impact of flavor ban policies using agent-based models. To address Aim 1, researchers will conduct an online survey among 600 young adult tobacco/ENDS users to assess product switching behavior after implementation of a flavor ban in San Francisco; researchers will evaluate flavor ban compliance enforcement, examine switching patterns, and analyze the determinants of changes in product use. To address Aim 2, researchers will conduct online discrete choice experiments with 600 young adults to estimate the impact of hypothetical flavor bans on product demand. They will examine multiple flavor ban policies related to menthol cigarette and flavored ENDS and will estimate the effects of product, flavor, price, nicotine content, and perceived harmfulness on smoker/user behavior. To address Aim 3, researchers will develop simulation models that capture the key determinants of switching behaviors and use the models to examine the impact of various flavor ban policies on switching behaviors as well as conversations between tobacco retailers and consumers. Researchers will also examine additional intervention strategies (price/tax policy, mass media campaign, smoking cessation program) that may work in concert with flavor ban policies. Findings will provide new information about the effects of tobacco product flavor bans on young adult use behavior.
 

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