1

 

                              FOOD ADVISORY COMMITTEE AND DIETARY

 

                                    SUPPLEMENTS SUBCOMMITTEE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                           THE ROLE OF GLUCOSOSAMINE AND CHONDROITIN

 

                                   SULFATE IN OSTEOARTHRITIS

 

                                              AND

 

                                  FURAN CONTAMINANTS IN FOODS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                     Tuesday, June 8, 2004

 

                                           8:00 a.m.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                       Bethesda Marriott

                                         Grand Ballroom

                                      5150 Pooks Hill Road

                                       Bethesda, Maryland


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             2

 

                                          PARTICIPANTS

 

                  Food Advisory Committee

 

                  Sanford A. Miller, Ph.D., Chairman

                  Linda Reed, Acting Executive Secretary

 

                  Douglas L. Archer, Ph.D.

                  Patrick S. Callery, Ph.D.

                  Goulda A. Downer, Ph.D.

                  Johanna Dwyer, D.Sc, RD

                  Jean M. Halloran

                  Norman I. Krinsky, Ph.D.

                  Daryl B. Lund, Ph.D.

                  Margaret C. McBride, M.D.

                  Mark F. Nelson, Ph.D.

                  Robert M. Russell, M.D.

                  Carolyn I. Waslien, Ph.D., R.D.

 

                  Dietary Supplements Subcommittee Members

 

                  Edward Blonz, Ph.D.

                  Edward D. Harris, Ph.D.

                  Harihara M. Mehendale, Ph.D.

                  Steven Zeisel, M.D., Ph.D.

 

                  Temporary Voting Members

 

                  Steven Abramson, M.D.

                  John J. Cush, M.D.

                  Luis Espinoza, M.D.

                  Scott A. Kale, M.D., J.D., M.S.

                  Nancy E. Lane, M.D.

 

                  FDA

 

                  Jeanne Latham

                  Dr. Craig Rowlands


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             3

 

                                        C O N T E N T S

 

                                                                          Page

 

                  Call to Order

                  Sanford A. Miller, Ph.D., Chair                            4

 

                  Review of Issues

                  Dr. Craig Rowlands                                         6

 

                  Committee Discussion                                       8

 

                  Concluding Comments                                      103

 

                  Dr. Miller


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             4

 

              1                      P R O C E E D I N G S

 

              2                          Call to Order

 

              3             DR. MILLER:  Good morning.  We are going

 

              4   to begin the second day of the meetings of the Food

 

 

              5   Advisory Committee.  This morning and the first

 

              6   part of this afternoon will be spent with the

 

              7   committee deliberating the information that we have

 

              8   received so far and try to develop a consensus

 

              9   response to the three questions that were presented

 

 

             10   to us by the FDA for us to respond to.

 

             11             Before we begin our work for today, there

 

             12   is a couple of issues I need to make and Linda also

 

             13   has some administrative things that need to be

 

             14   brought to your attention.

 

 

             15             First, two of the members of the

 

             16   committee, Dr. David Felson and Dr. Annette

 

             17   Dickinson will not be with us today.  They were

 

             18   unable to stay for the two days of the meeting, and

 

             19   I think we will miss them.  But, for the record,

 

 

             20   they won't be with us.

 

             21             Secondly, it is really important that we

 

             22   stick to the time frame as closely as possible.  We


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             5

 

              1   have another subject to discuss, the Food Advisory

 

              2   Committee has another subject to discuss, and that

 

              3   is the contamination of foods with furans, and we

 

              4   have to be out of this room, I have been informed,

 

 

              5   by 6 o'clock at the very latest, otherwise, we will

 

              6   find ourselves in the middle of a wedding, that

 

              7   that is not going to help our deliberations to any

 

              8   great extent.

 

              9             So, we will do that.  At 1:45, this

 

 

             10   section of the meeting will adjourn and the

 

             11   temporary voting members and the members of the

 

             12   Supplements Subcommittee that have joined us will

 

             13   be excused, with our thanks, of course, and we will

 

             14   continue on with the furan part of the meeting with

 

 

             15   a new group of temporary voting members, and so on,

 

             16   and so forth.

 

             17             Linda.

 

             18             MS. REED:  Good morning, everyone.  I just

 

             19   have a couple of administrative announcements,

 

 

             20   information I want to give you.  If anyone needs

 

             21   transportation back to their respective airports,

 

             22   please see Sharon Barcelos [ph], who is sitting out


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             6

 

              1   front at the registration desk, and she will get

 

              2   that arranged for you.

 

              3             Also, just as a reminder, I believe

 

              4   checkout is at noon for anybody who needs to check

 

 

              5   out.  Also, if you would like to have your briefing

 

              6   materials Fed Ex'd back to your business or

 

              7   residence, we have Fed Ex boxes and labels outside

 

              8   also where Sharon is sitting, if anybody wants to

 

              9   take advantage of doing that versus carrying it

 

 

             10   back with them, so please see Sharon for those

 

             11   details.

 

             12             Thank you.

 

             13             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Craig Rowlands from the

 

             14   FDA will again present the questions to us.  He is

 

 

             15   also available, if anybody has any questions they

 

             16   need for clarification, or information that they

 

             17   might need in order to come to some decision on

 

             18   these questions, please address them to Craig.

 

             19             I have asked them to put the questions up

 

 

             20   on the screen and leave them up there, so that they

 

             21   will be in front of us during our discussions

 

             22   today.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             7

 

              1             Craig.

 

              2                         Review of Issues

 

              3             DR. ROWLANDS:  Good morning.  I am going

 

              4   to read the questions as I read them yesterday,

 

 

              5   which is I am going to combine Questions 1, the A

 

              6   and B, and then Questions 2, the A and B, and then

 

              7   Question 3, I will read as written.

 

              8             Question 1 is:  Is 1(a), joint

 

              9   degeneration, and Question 1(b), cartilage

 

 

             10   deterioration, a state of health leading to

 

             11   disease, which is a modifiable risk factor

 

             12   surrogate endpoint for OA risk reduction?

 

             13             Then, we would like to know what are the

 

             14   strengths and limitations of the scientific

 

 

             15   evidence on this issue.

 

             16             Question 2 is:  If we assume that for

 

             17   2(a), joint degeneration, and for Question 2(b),

 

             18   cartilage deteriorating, is a modifiable risk

 

             19   factor surrogate endpoint for OA risk reduction,

 

 

             20   and we assume that research demonstrates that a

 

             21   dietary substance treats, mitigates, or slows joint

 

             22   degeneration or cartilage deterioration in patients


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             8

 

              1   diagnosed with osteoarthritis, is it scientifically

 

              2   valid to use such research to suggest a reduced

 

              3   risk of OA in the general healthy population, that

 

              4   is, individuals without osteoarthritis, from

 

 

              5   consumption of the dietary substance?

 

              6             Question 3 is:  If human data are absent,

 

              7   can the results from animal and in vitro models of

 

              8   OA demonstrate risk reduction of OA in humans?

 

              9             3(a)  To the extent that animal or in

 

 

             10   vitro models of OA may be useful, what animal

 

             11   models or in vitro models, types of evidence and

 

             12   endpoints should be used to assess risk reduction

 

             13   of OA in humans?

 

             14             3(b)  If limited human data are available,

 

 

             15   what data should be based on human studies and what

 

             16   data could be based on animal and in vitro studies

 

             17   to determine whether the overall data are useful in

 

             18   assessing a reduced risk of OA in humans?

 

             19             If there is any clarification needed or

 

 

             20   anything on those questions, you can ask me or

 

             21   actually you could ask any of the FDA staff for any

 

             22   clarifications if you like.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                             9

 

              1             DR. MILLER:  Any comments?  Dr. Cush.

 

              2             DR. CUSH:  Well, actually, I would like to

 

              3   provide a clarification, I think to Question 1(a).

 

              4   I would like joint degeneration to be considered

 

 

              5   separately from cartilage deterioration.

 

              6             Joint degeneration, I think would

 

              7   basically be an analogous definition of

 

              8   osteoarthritis.  I don't believe that it is a state

 

              9   that leads to, I mean it is a net result that is

 

 

             10   osteoarthritis.  It is a poor choice of words, and

 

             11   should not be any kind of labeling, and should be

 

             12   rejected outright.

 

             13             I think to move on to cartilage

 

             14   deterioration, which is sort of the target of the

 

 

             15   initial damage of the disorder, something that we

 

             16   measure.  Joint degeneration is too global, too

 

             17   vague, but it nonetheless does imply the net result

 

             18   of osteoarthritis.

 

             19             So, that term I believe is faulty and

 

 

             20   should be eliminated.

 

             21             DR. ROWLANDS:  Okay.  Of course, the

 

             22   questions are written separately as 1(a) and then


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            10

 

              1   1(b).

 

              2                       Committee Discussion

 

              3             DR. MILLER:  Any comments or response to

 

              4   that?  Yes.

 

 

              5             DR. BLONZ:  Edward Blonz.  Now, the

 

              6   question I would pose to that is, does the joint

 

              7   degeneration process begin and then lead to

 

              8   osteoporosis, or as soon as joint degeneration has

 

              9   begun, you are already there?  Osteoarthritis,

 

 

             10   forgive me.

 

             11             DR. CUSH:  Again, this goes back to

 

             12   yesterday's definition of the transition from

 

             13   healthy to disease state, which is an impossibility

 

             14   to define I think in this instance, and I don't

 

 

             15   believe that joint degeneration implies a lesser,

 

             16   more minor, or protein state of the net result,

 

             17   which is osteoarthritis.

 

             18             I think it embodies what we see in

 

             19   osteoarthritis, which is again the whole joint

 

 

             20   being affected by more primordial events that begin

 

             21   with cartilage pathology.

 

             22             DR. MILLER:  It seems to me, as I said


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            11

 

              1   yesterday, it seems to me that there is a

 

              2   fundamental issue that somehow or other we need to

 

              3   comment on, and that is the question on which much

 

              4   of the discussion is based, and that is, there is

 

 

              5   at some point when osteoarthritis or any of the

 

              6   pre-quals [ph] of osteoarthritis that we are

 

              7   discussing to see whether they have any ultimate

 

              8   impact does or does not exist.

 

              9             I mean, to exaggerate, if you listen to

 

 

             10   the conversation about the continuum, and you can

 

             11   argue the continuum begins at conception and ends

 

             12   at death, and those kind of continuums are not

 

             13   unknown in biology, and it just seems to me that we

 

             14   need to address that question, if the basic issue

 

 

             15   that the FDA is trying to deal with is going to be

 

             16   responded to.

 

             17             Yes, David.

 

             18             DR. ABRAMSON:  I think, Dr. Miller, that

 

             19   is the nub that we are struggling with, and I think

 

 

             20   one of the issues that is important to review from

 

             21   yesterday's discussion is that our clinical ability

 

             22   to detect osteoarthritis is very crude at the


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            12

 

              1   earliest stages and particularly the imaging

 

              2   technology is very crude, and we rely on that.

 

              3             So, histologically, we all would be able

 

              4   to sit around a table with a pathologist and

 

 

              5   differentiate normal cartilage from early

 

              6   degenerative changes of cartilage, and that is how,

 

              7   in fact, when you do studies of OA, you define it

 

              8   pathologically, not by imaging.

 

              9             Imaging is useful for clinical trials, as

 

 

             10   Dr. Simon said, and also for clinical care of

 

             11   patients, but the disease, as is atherosclerosis

 

             12   present for years perhaps before the patient is

 

             13   symptomatic, but a pathologist can see

 

             14   atherosclerosis and a pathologist can see

 

 

             15   osteoarthritis, and that doesn't happen necessarily

 

             16   when you are 15 or 17, it happens in the later

 

             17   decades.

 

             18             The other related dilemma is the disease

 

             19   osteoarthritis pathologically can be detected early

 

 

             20   with fibrillations and fissuring, but then in only

 

             21   some people does it advance at a rate that they get

 

             22   it at age 55 or 75, or perhaps 100, but there is a


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            13

 

              1   continuum where I think we would call this

 

              2   cartilage abnormality osteoarthritis.

 

              3             So, I think the limitations of our

 

              4   diagnostic tools are part of the problem here, but

 

 

              5   the disease can be detected if one looks carefully

 

              6   enough at many of these earlier points.

 

              7             DR. MILLER:  Well, it is impossible--I

 

              8   will just lay this on the table--to say that you

 

              9   can't distinguish a period in which osteoarthritis

 

 

             10   or the phenomenon that lead to full-blown

 

             11   osteoarthritis can't be determined.

 

             12             DR. LANE:  I think that that is true.  I

 

             13   mean what Dr. Abramson says is we neither have the

 

             14   imaging techniques, nor do we have a measurement in

 

 

             15   the blood or serum that you could at which point

 

             16   say this, like cholesterol, we don't have a

 

             17   cholesterol, we don't have a level of a marker of

 

             18   bone or cartilage turnover that we could say this

 

             19   person is at so high a risk of getting OA that we

 

 

             20   should do something about it.

 

             21             We neither have an imaging tool nor a

 

             22   serum marker in this continuum, and until the


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            14

 

              1   person comes to medical care with pain in their

 

              2   joint, it is unclear.  Even if they have a x-ray

 

              3   and it's abnormal, it is unclear they are going to

 

              4   get a clinical disease.

 

 

              5             As Dr. Felson said yesterday, only 30

 

              6   percent of people who have significant radiographic

 

              7   changes ever have clinical painful disease.

 

              8             DR. MILLER:  I understand that.  What I am

 

              9   just trying to say is that if that be the case, and

 

 

             10   there is a consensus that that is the case, then,

 

             11   that is what we ought to say.  That is all I am

 

             12   trying to say.

 

             13             DR. LANE:  Okay.

 

             14             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Cush.

 

 

             15             DR. CUSH:  I would like to reiterate a

 

             16   point that was brought up by David Felson

 

             17   yesterday, and that was in spite of what appears to

 

             18   be a struggle as to what we know and what we don't

 

             19   know, no rheumatologist has difficulty making a

 

 

             20   diagnosis of osteoarthritis.  It is a very certain

 

             21   disease, it is easy to diagnose.

 

             22             What we are talking about here, in this


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            15

 

              1   continuum that may begin with genetic factors, and

 

              2   then biochemical factors, then immunologic events,

 

              3   then physiochemical events, and then sometime

 

              4   shortly thereafter, symptoms might ensue, and then

 

 

              5   are followed by damage and the functional

 

              6   consequences of disease.

 

              7             All along the way, imaging, depending on

 

              8   how good or sensitive it is or is not, or a

 

              9   biomarker, how sensitive it is, it may be present

 

 

             10   or it may be absent, but they don't factor as much

 

             11   into this as the symptoms do, so it is when

 

             12   symptoms begin that we recognize this constellation

 

             13   of findings and we make this diagnosis.

 

             14             What is not known is what is pre-OA, we

 

 

             15   don't have a diagnosis of pre-osteoarthritis.  In

 

             16   fact, we don't have great risk factors.  We know

 

             17   risk factors, we know there are some genetic risk

 

             18   factors, which is for a minority of individuals.

 

             19             We know that obesity and we know that

 

 

             20   certain lifestyles or occupations are risk factors

 

             21   for osteoarthritis, and those are modifiable, but

 

             22   by the way, none of those subsets have these


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            16

 

              1   nutritional supplements been applied to and shown

 

              2   to have protective benefit.

 

              3             So, you know, we are being asked to

 

              4   address whether or not some intervention might be

 

 

              5   applied to a healthy population to protect us

 

              6   against the disease.

 

              7             Again, I have a problem with connecting

 

              8   the dots.  We saw some good research and good

 

              9   results applied to people with disease, but

 

 

             10   applying them to the general population who may or

 

             11   may not have this is, I think a gigantic leap of

 

             12   faith that is going to be difficult to make.

 

             13             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Zeisel.

 

             14             DR. ZEISEL:  I would like to suggest that

 

 

             15   we approach this bit by bit, and not jump to the

 

             16   treatment of OA or prevention of OA at this moment,

 

             17   but rather the question before us is, is cartilage

 

             18   degeneration a predecessor of OA in the individuals

 

             19   who develop OA.

 

 

             20             Now, that doesn't mean that everybody who

 

             21   has cartilage degeneration is going to go on to

 

             22   develop OA, but in the individuals who develop OA,


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            17

 

              1   is cartilage degeneration a predecessor, and from

 

              2   what I have heard, I would argue that it is, that

 

              3   people who go on to develop OA start with cartilage

 

              4   degeneration.

 

 

              5             Again, we might parse that very finely,

 

              6   but, in general, you have some cartilage

 

              7   degeneration that gets worse and worse until some

 

              8   point when you develop frank symptomatology that is

 

              9   picked up.

 

 

             10             So, if we can agree on that, we can agree

 

             11   on a Question 1(b) that it's a deterioration of

 

             12   state of health leading to a disease.  Now, it

 

             13   doesn't always lead to the disease, but it is clear

 

             14   that sometimes it does.

 

 

             15             Is that a reasonable statement?

 

             16             DR. LANE:  Well, I have a little trouble

 

             17   with it, because you are saying that the cartilage

 

             18   degeneration is starting out leading to something,

 

             19   and I think, as was brought up yesterday, the joint

 

 

             20   is a structure, and what leads to the painful

 

             21   disease OA is cartilage and bone changes.

 

             22             So, I ask Dr. Abramson should we separate


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            18

 

              1   out the cartilage, I am not so sure.

 

              2             DR. ABRAMSON:  Well, I guess the semantic

 

              3   issue here is I would argue that cartilage

 

              4   degeneration is the earliest phase of

 

 

              5   osteoarthritis, therefore, it is not a normal

 

              6   state.

 

              7             DR. ZEISEL:  Well, again, I think that we

 

              8   cannot come to any resolution here as a committee

 

              9   if we--you know, it's like arguing when birth

 

 

             10   starts.  We can get down and keep going back and

 

             11   back.

 

             12             I think that our problem here is that we

 

             13   all realize that realistically, there is a stage at

 

             14   which cartilage falls slightly behind in its repair

 

 

             15   versus synthesis rate, and that that is a minuscule

 

             16   change that is only detectable by the finest cell

 

             17   biology, but eventually, it goes on and it can't be

 

             18   the disease at the first mistake. Otherwise, then,

 

             19   there is nothing you could ever prevent, because

 

 

             20   you have the disease the first time the first

 

             21   cartilage cell doesn't make the right amount of

 

             22   cartilage.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            19

 

              1             So, I think realistically, it is hard to

 

              2   accept that you define the disease as when the

 

              3   first cartilage cell doesn't make the right amount

 

              4   of cartilage.

 

 

              5             DR. ABRAMSON:  That does become a

 

              6   theological discussion, but the point that I would

 

              7   make is how do we define cartilage degeneration

 

              8   even for this discussion, and I would suggest that

 

              9   although we talked about OA as being an inevitably

 

 

             10   disease-related disease, in point of fact, it is

 

             11   not--when you are 75 years old, maybe only 30

 

             12   percent of people have it.

 

             13             I can tell you in our laboratory, we rely

 

             14   on getting normal tissue age matched before we do

 

 

             15   studies by the pathologist, and you can find lots

 

             16   of people who come to surgery for fractures or

 

             17   other reason who have absolutely normal cartilage

 

             18   at age 70, that you then have to say, okay, I am

 

             19   going to do my study, and that is a normal person

 

 

             20   age 70, and this is a person who has

 

             21   osteoarthritis.

 

             22             So, the notion that it is a normal process


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            20

 

              1   with time, I think, you know, it depends at what

 

              2   point in time, and it is not necessarily therefore

 

              3   everyone is going to get OA and at the earliest

 

              4   sign.  So, you can have normal cartilage, and I

 

 

              5   would suggest that the degenerative changes that

 

              6   the pathologist can see is osteoarthritis.

 

              7             DR. ZEISEL:  But we have also heard, I

 

              8   believe, that you can have abnormal cartilage, and

 

              9   not have osteoarthritis, that, by definition, there

 

 

             10   are some people going around with abnormal

 

             11   cartilage and they do not have osteoarthritis by

 

             12   the clinician's recognition of that disease.

 

             13             So, having abnormal cartilage cannot be

 

             14   the sine qua non of having osteoarthritis.  What I

 

 

             15   am trying to say is that it can precede it, and

 

             16   therefore, there must be people who will develop

 

             17   osteoarthritis who have the start of cartilage

 

             18   degeneration, and the question at hand is, is that

 

             19   a marker that is worthwhile following as something

 

 

             20   that you could intervene in.  I mean I think that

 

             21   is what Question 1(b) is.

 

             22             DR. MILLER:  Well, couldn't that be a rate


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            21

 

              1   function?  In other words, a rate of degeneration

 

              2   that could take place, and if you don't live long

 

              3   enough for it to express itself, so to speak.

 

              4             I mean the problem, let me see if I can

 

 

              5   focus this discussion a little bit, a little more,

 

              6   the problem that the FDA faces is being able to

 

              7   determine whether or not the results you are

 

              8   looking at is mitigation of existing disease or is

 

              9   it risk reduction--I have to be careful what words

 

 

             10   I use--whether it is a risk reduction function.

 

             11             That is the problem that they face, and

 

             12   there are many ways to deal with this.  One is to

 

             13   get a consensus for an arbitrary distinction at

 

             14   what point one process begins and the other ends,

 

 

             15   recognizing that you are trying to deal with a

 

             16   point on a continuum.

 

             17             I am not sure we could do that here, but

 

             18   if there is some agreement, we can recognize that.

 

             19             DR. LANE:  I think, Dr. Miller, that is a

 

 

             20   very important point, because research that Dr.

 

             21   Felson and our group do has shown us surprisingly

 

             22   that the risk factors for getting the disease at


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            22

 

              1   this point, with the research done, are different

 

              2   than what causes it to get worse.

 

              3             So, armed with that data and the

 

              4   literature for both hip and knee OA, we may have to

 

 

              5   make a bit of a distinction even though

 

              6   theoretically, we think the continuum should, we

 

              7   really don't have the data to support that today.

 

              8             DR. MILLER:  Basically, you have got to

 

              9   draw that bright line somewhere.

 

 

             10             DR. LANE:  That's right, we have to put a

 

             11   dotted line, that is exactly right.

 

             12             DR. MILLER:  Recognizing that there is a

 

             13   big variation.

 

             14             DR. LANE:  That's right.

 

 

             15             DR. MILLER:  We have a number of people

 

             16   that have been trying to get some questions in

 

             17   here, and to be fair, I have got to give them a

 

             18   chance.

 

             19             Dr. Espinoza.

 

 

             20             DR. ESPINOZA:  I don't have any problems

 

             21   with the question posed by FDA regarding joint

 

             22   deterioration and cartilage degeneration.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            23

 

              1   Cartilage degeneration might be the hallmark of the

 

              2   disease that we call osteoarthritis, but

 

              3   osteoarthritis is much more than that.

 

              4             I definitely feel that joint deterioration

 

 

              5   should be considered at least a relevant question

 

              6   for us to discuss here.

 

              7             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Nelson.

 

              8             DR. NELSON:  Following up on the questions

 

              9   about the continuum, we are interested in risk

 

 

             10   factors for this particular discussion, correct?

 

             11             DR. MILLER:  Right.

 

             12             DR. NELSON:  As I understood it, there

 

             13   could be 75-year-olds that have no anatomical

 

             14   changes, and clearly they have no risk of

 

 

             15   developing osteoarthritis, but then there are

 

             16   others that do, in fact, have these changes, but

 

             17   have no symptomatology, so they have risk factors,

 

             18   but it hasn't led to the problem.

 

             19             As I understood it, the disease was, as I

 

 

             20   think Dr. Zeisel allude to it, the disease is

 

             21   really considered a disease once the patient

 

             22   presents symptoms.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            24

 

              1             In that situation, would not, in fact,

 

              2   cartilage deterioration be a risk factor that may

 

              3   or may not be modifiable, but before the disease

 

              4   appears?

 

 

              5             DR. ABRAMSON:  The difficulty for me here

 

              6   is that we define osteoarthritis as when the

 

              7   symptoms begin at one level, but we can all look at

 

              8   an x-ray and say this asymptomatic patient has

 

              9   osteoarthritis of the knee or back, so there is

 

 

             10   three levels by which we make this diagnosis.

 

             11             We make a clinical diagnosis, we make a

 

             12   radiographic diagnosis, and we make a histological

 

             13   diagnosis, and depending on which part of the

 

             14   elephant you are looking at, the elephant still has

 

 

             15   osteoarthritis, the disease of tissue degeneration.

 

             16             So, I think the analogy to other diseases

 

             17   then becomes important, and it depends what the FDA

 

             18   wants to call the onset of the disease.  If it

 

             19   limits itself to symptoms, that is one way of

 

 

             20   looking at it, but is hypertension a disease if the

 

             21   person doesn't have a stroke until it had 20 years

 

             22   of hypertension, is a plaque in the coronary artery


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            25

 

              1   atherosclerosis if the patient hasn't had angina.

 

              2             So, I would suggest that the disease is a

 

              3   set of pathogenic events in tissue and tissue

 

              4   injury that we don't have either the imaging

 

 

              5   technology or the patient may be asymptomatic up to

 

              6   a point, but eventually that patient who has that

 

              7   disease will most commonly get some kind of

 

              8   symptom.

 

              9             The symptoms of osteoarthritis don't come

 

 

             10   from where a lot of the pathogenic changes are

 

             11   happening because there is no nerves there, but

 

             12   eventually, the organ fails, eventually symptoms

 

             13   will occur, so I think this is a definitional

 

             14   problem.  I think the disease can be all of those

 

 

             15   different things, and this discussion I think has

 

             16   to decide which of those things we want to call

 

             17   osteoarthritis.

 

             18             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Kale.

 

             19             DR. KALE:  It seems clear that the

 

 

             20   degeneration of cartilage is necessary, but not

 

             21   sufficient to create the syndrome of

 

             22   osteoarthritis, but if we are forced to acknowledge


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            26

 

              1   that every human being will develop this condition

 

              2   of cartilage degeneration, but may or may not

 

              3   develop the syndrome of osteoarthritis, then, we

 

              4   have embraced a very large definition, which is

 

 

              5   fine.

 

              6             I feel uncomfortable holding the

 

              7   petitioners responsible for changing that or

 

              8   clarifying the universe for us when we can't do it

 

              9   ourselves.

 

 

             10             The notion that you could prevent the

 

             11   syndrome from developing by using a product like

 

             12   chondroitin sulfate or glucosamine, with the

 

             13   possibility of reducing a universe of patients from

 

             14   having the symptoms, and given again that we are

 

 

             15   all going to develop some evidence of cartilage

 

             16   degeneration, seems like a very worthy idea, and

 

             17   the fact that we can't define a modifiable risk

 

             18   factor for our satisfaction seems an unfair burden

 

             19   to place on the petitioners.

 

 

             20             My basic point is that in a certain sense,

 

             21   walnuts are to LDL as chondroitin sulfate or

 

             22   glucosamine is to reduction of cartilage


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            27

 

              1   degeneration, and in that sense, the modifiable

 

              2   risk factor would be, for the purpose of this

 

              3   hearing, would be modifying the risk factor of

 

              4   degenerating cartilage.

 

 

              5             You could reduce the degeneration of

 

              6   cartilage and, in some patients, some fortunate few

 

              7   or some fortunate many, they would not go ahead and

 

              8   develop osteoarthritis and perhaps the rest would.

 

              9             That is no better than we can say for

 

 

             10   Lipitor or any other drug or any other drug as we

 

             11   are trying to treat diseases relevant to, say,

 

             12   cardiovascular disease.

 

             13             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Cush.

 

             14             DR. CUSH:  I think that it is clear we

 

 

             15   can't make any 100 percent certain statements about

 

             16   relatedness and/or discrete time variables where

 

             17   events, pathologic or otherwise, lead to actual

 

             18   disease.

 

             19             I think what we can say is, you know, use

 

 

             20   the term "reasonable certainty," and I think that

 

             21   is much more operationally important here.

 

             22             I would use the analogy that is a


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            28

 

              1   catastrophic motor vehicle accident or skiing

 

              2   accident a risk factor for developing

 

              3   osteoarthritis?  Yes, it is.  I mean such an

 

              4   individual is more likely than not to have his or

 

 

              5   her cartilage damaged to the point that it will

 

              6   lead to a secondary osteoarthritic joint.

 

              7             Similarly, although that is much more of a

 

              8   macroscopic insult, here, we are talking about

 

              9   microscopic insults, hence, I would say that

 

 

             10   cartilage degeneration or deterioration is also a

 

             11   risk factor for the development of osteoarthritis,

 

             12   and a statement using sort of a reasonably certain

 

             13   terminology.

 

             14             I think most of us, I wasn't happy with

 

 

             15   it, but I think that we know that, in fact, that

 

             16   that is not a good thing, and there is a reasonable

 

             17   risk for development of osteoarthritis.

 

             18             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Dwyer.

 

             19             DR. DWYER:  I think where I am confused

 

 

             20   is, is it a risk factor or is it a sign that the

 

             21   disease is already present.  To me, it seems like

 

             22   it is a sign, from what some of you experts say, it


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            29

 

              1   is a sign that the disease is already there.  So,

 

              2   it is not a risk factor, it is a sign of the

 

              3   disease, which is different, at least in my head it

 

              4   is different.

 

 

              5             DR. CUSH:  For the person who gets the

 

              6   disease, yes, it is, but as we have said, there are

 

              7   people who have cartilage abnormalities who will

 

              8   never have symptoms.

 

              9             DR. DWYER:  But that doesn't bother me

 

 

             10   because all of these diseases are multifactorial,

 

             11   so there are a lot of people who have a whole bunch

 

             12   of different characteristics, but they don't get

 

             13   the disease.

 

             14             DR. CUSH:  I don't understand.  I mean you

 

 

             15   are going to discard those people who have, and not

 

             16   consider them, is that what you are saying, people

 

             17   who have cartilage abnormalities, because again, if

 

             18   we are going to accept that they are not important,

 

             19   then, we may be overtreating or subjecting a large

 

 

             20   segment of the population to products that they may

 

             21   not need.  I think we have to consider them.

 

             22             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Zeisel.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            30

 

              1             DR. ZEISEL:  Let's retreat to some ground

 

              2   that has already been covered, I believe, by the

 

              3   FDA.  Individuals, treatments that can lower

 

              4   cholesterol are allowed to say that they are

 

 

              5   beneficial in the prevention of atherosclerosis and

 

              6   cardiovascular disease.

 

              7             We all know that everybody 17 years and up

 

              8   has atherosclerosis already to some extent, that

 

              9   none of them, if taken apart by a pathologist,

 

 

             10   won't show atherosclerosis, and yet we don't say

 

             11   they have the disease, and we are willing to say

 

             12   that in even a 30-year-old or 40-year-old or

 

             13   50-year-old, lowering cholesterol is reducing a

 

             14   risk factor for cardiovascular disease even though

 

 

             15   they have it by any definition, that we all have

 

             16   some cardiovascular disease right now.

 

             17             So, I think drawing on that analogy,

 

             18   saying that reducing cartilage degeneration is a

 

             19   reduction in risk for developing osteoarthritis

 

 

             20   seems to be a fair parallel, and just as everybody

 

             21   with high cholesterol doesn't go on to develop an

 

             22   MI or need a bypass, everybody who has abnormal


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            31

 

              1   cartilage doesn't go on to need a knee replacement

 

              2   or whatever.

 

              3             So, I think we have a fair analogy to a

 

              4   situation that is already in place, and that if we

 

 

              5   start from there, we can move on to ask some of the

 

              6   more difficult questions about whether changes in

 

              7   evidence of this risk factor have anything to

 

              8   do--in diseased patients have anything to do with

 

              9   changes in patients who you would not have

 

 

             10   clinically said had the disease osteoarthritis.

 

             11             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Blonz.

 

             12             DR. BLONZ:  So, we keep coming back to the

 

             13   same point.  Are we dealing with, as soon as it's

 

             14   here, you have got the disease, or is it a process

 

 

             15   which can be thought of as a risk factor that

 

             16   basically puts you in queue to the point that all

 

             17   we are doing is waiting for you to report the

 

             18   symptoms and then get the radiographic

 

             19   confirmation, and then you are officially labeled,

 

 

             20   and the disease is put on your chart?

 

             21             So, we are dealing with terminology and

 

             22   subjectivity, not having the objective factors like


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            32

 

              1   we might have with coronary artery disease where we

 

              2   can measure this biomarker of cholesterol in the

 

              3   bloodstream.

 

              4             So, we are actually dealing with the

 

 

              5   second half of the question, the strength and

 

              6   weaknesses before we deal with the first half of

 

              7   the question.

 

              8             So, I will pose it, of course, to the

 

              9   experts in the field.  If we had a measure of joint

 

 

             10   deterioration prior to the reporting of

 

             11   symptomatology by the patient, if we had this

 

             12   marker, would this be something, if we could modify

 

             13   it, we could reduce the risk?

 

             14             DR. MILLER:  Isn't that one of the reasons

 

 

             15   the NIH study is being one?

 

             16             DR. LANE:  Yes.

 

             17             DR. MILLER:  Now, again, just throwing an

 

             18   idea on the table, it is perfectly possible for us

 

             19   to say that if the data was available, it is almost

 

 

             20   an arbitrary distinction, because we can't get away

 

             21   from the concept of a continuum, and if this is

 

             22   going to be useful, then, we may just have to say


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            33

 

              1   that.

 

              2             Dr. Lane.

 

              3             DR. LANE:  I would like to comment on

 

              4   that, two points.  One is I think there is a

 

 

              5   continuum that keep being jumped to, and I am

 

              6   concerned about it.  One is we know that if you

 

              7   have heart disease and your cholesterol is high,

 

              8   and you take the statin and you lower the

 

              9   cholesterol, and the disease slows down its

 

 

             10   progression, and that data led us then to looking

 

             11   at lowering cholesterol in people who didn't have

 

             12   clinical disease, and then found that, gee, it did

 

             13   prevent the onset of the clinical disease.

 

             14             But even though we know cardiovascular

 

 

             15   disease is a continuum, we have strong evidence to

 

             16   support now that lowering your cholesterol prevents

 

             17   an event of the clinical disease, and I feel

 

             18   strongly that we need to show that all we know, I

 

             19   know so far with the medications on the table, if

 

 

             20   you have disease, they do something, but we don't

 

             21   have anything on the preventive side, and your

 

             22   point is well taken that until we know what those


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            34

 

              1   markers or surrogates are to tell us disease is

 

              2   coming, we are just jumping into an unknown area.

 

              3             That is why I am a little concerned about

 

              4   making parallels.

 

 

              5             DR. ZEISEL:  There are lots of people with

 

              6   high cholesterol that don't get heart disease,

 

              7   there are lots of people with low cholesterol that

 

              8   go on and have MIs, it is just as uncertain, but

 

              9   somehow people have said they are willing to say

 

 

             10   that there is enough of a relationship that they

 

             11   are willing to use this imperfect biomarker, and I

 

             12   think cartilage degeneration is that similar thing.

 

             13             There are some things that don't exactly

 

             14   fit, that don't always follow, but, in general, you

 

 

             15   feel that a person is at higher risk if you come in

 

             16   and their cartilage is degenerating, of coming down

 

             17   with a clinical syndrome, and I think the same

 

             18   thing is true with cholesterol.

 

             19             Many people have very low cholesterol and

 

 

             20   go on to have heart attacks.  They have heart

 

             21   attacks for other reasons than cholesterol, and

 

             22   that may be true with OA.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            35

 

              1             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Waslien.

 

              2             DR. WASLIEN:  I think we need to look at

 

              3   the history of the development of these two

 

              4   indicators to call an analogy with cardiovascular

 

 

              5   disease when it took us 20, 30 years to do the

 

              6   clinical lipid trials to prove that indeed lowering

 

              7   cholesterol would have an effect.

 

              8             I think we are at the stage of saying

 

              9   maybe reduction in cartilage will have an effect,

 

 

             10   but we don't have data to prove it.  So, to jump to

 

             11   the conclusion of saying, well, we will use this as

 

             12   a marker when we don't have the kind of many years,

 

             13   I mean the cholesterol history is 40, 50 years old,

 

             14   of knowing that people had elevated cholesterols,

 

 

             15   but not knowing if it made any difference.

 

             16             So, I think we are in that stage of saying

 

             17   yes, people have degenerated cartilage, but will

 

             18   changing that degeneration have any effect on

 

             19   osteoarthritis, I think those trials are needed

 

 

             20   before we can say anything.

 

             21             DR. MILLER:  Well, it is possible for us

 

             22   to say that there is a relationship, we don't


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            36

 

              1   understand it yet, and that once we get the data,

 

              2   it can be used, and to indicate we don't have the

 

              3   data yet.  I mean there are a lot of possibilities.

 

              4             The DRI Committee at the Institute of

 

 

              5   Medicine ran into this with the relationship

 

              6   between saturated fat and cholesterol.  The

 

              7   American Heart Association published a chart that

 

              8   showed the relationship between saturated fat in

 

              9   the diet and cholesterol, serum cholesterol, went

 

 

             10   to zero, in other words, you had some increase in

 

             11   cholesterol even at very low levels of saturated

 

             12   fat intake.

 

             13             They came to the conclusion that they had

 

             14   to make an arbitrary distinction, is it possible

 

 

             15   not to have saturated fat in the diet.

 

             16             Dr. Cush.

 

             17             DR. CUSH:  I would like to first caution

 

             18   everybody to stop talking about diseases which you

 

             19   know too much about, meaning like, you know,

 

 

             20   hyperlipidemia and stroke, because we have great

 

             21   models and, as was stated, many years of history,

 

             22   and we don't know that the analogy to


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            37

 

              1   osteoarthritis is going to be as clear.

 

              2             It seems logical, but it may, in fact, not

 

              3   be, and osteoarthritis may not be one disease, but

 

              4   may be several.  I mean, for instance, in lupus, a

 

 

              5   disease that we know a lot about, that we see a lot

 

              6   of it, but all of those patients have some degree

 

              7   of renal damage that one would pick up on biopsy,

 

              8   but yet there is only a small proportion of them

 

              9   with certain types of damage that will go to

 

 

             10   develop renal failure and outcomes there.

 

             11             Again, we have to be careful about

 

             12   extrapolation from other human models, and even

 

             13   animal models, that there is a gigantic leap of

 

             14   faith which makes us all the more uncertain.

 

 

             15             I think that cartilage and cartilage

 

             16   deterioration could be a surrogate marker for the

 

             17   disease, but the problem is that that is not

 

             18   something that is measure in daily routine

 

             19   practice.  We don't measure that, we don't examine

 

 

             20   that, I don't image that.  As we heard, there are

 

             21   lots of problems with quantifying and assessing

 

             22   cartilage damage even in well constructed trials.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            38

 

              1             But I think we have to move on, because I

 

              2   think we have said this over and over that as Dr.

 

              3   Blonz said, if you have cartilage deterioration,

 

              4   you are in queue.  It is a risk factor for the

 

 

              5   development of disease.  I think that that is

 

              6   something that has been said over and over.  I

 

              7   don't know there is much disagreement with that at

 

              8   this point.

 

              9             So, I mean I think that question has been

 

 

             10   answered and we can move on.

 

             11             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Russell.

 

             12             DR. RUSSELL:  This is a question for the

 

             13   rheumatologists.  Is there some point along the

 

             14   continuum of joint deterioration where it becomes

 

 

             15   really much more likely that a person will develop

 

             16   osteoarthritis?

 

             17             I mean I realize you can have significant

 

             18   deterioration without developing the clinical

 

             19   syndrome, but is there some point along the

 

 

             20   continuum to say, well, this person is really

 

             21   likely to?

 

             22             DR. CUSH:  No.  You are asking for more


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            39

 

              1   certainty that has already been expressed, so no.

 

              2             DR. LANE:  Not only no, but what is

 

              3   surprising is if you take all the data we have, an

 

              4   x-ray, and everything else, and the people that you

 

 

              5   think should have it don't, and the people that

 

              6   have sometimes a more normal x-ray, when they go to

 

              7   surgery, et cetera, do.

 

              8             DR. RUSSELL:  Thank you.

 

              9             DR. MILLER:  Dr. McBride.

 

 

             10             DR. McBRIDE:  I have a little trouble with

 

             11   the analogy with the cholesterol, because, as a

 

             12   neurologist, if you have a stroke, it's a big deal,

 

             13   and it is not the same kind of a continuum as

 

             14   osteoarthritis.

 

 

             15             We are a little bit bogged own here with

 

             16   semantics, but if you look at the FDA definition of

 

             17   a modifiable risk factor, which is what we are

 

             18   being asked, it is a measurement of a variable

 

             19   related to a disease that may serve as an indicator

 

 

             20   or predictor of that disease.

 

             21             If we all agree that by the time you have

 

             22   pain and dysfunction that you have the disease, it


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            40

 

              1   is hard not to call cartilage deterioration a risk

 

              2   factor.  Certainly, it would not be ignored in any

 

              3   kind of early studies looking at prevention.  I

 

              4   mean there is a whole other question of whether or

 

 

              5   not modifying it during the disease means that you

 

              6   can modify the risk.  We have to take that up.

 

              7             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Krinsky.

 

              8             DR. KRINSKY:  I agree with Dr. McBride,

 

              9   with her comments, but the thing that concerns me

 

 

             10   about the cholesterol/cardiovascular disease

 

             11   analogy is that I don't see where we have a

 

             12   cholesterol, and lacking a cholesterol, the analogy

 

             13   fails, so that unless there is an appropriate

 

             14   biomarker for determining the moment or, at some

 

 

             15   time, the extent of your cartilage deterioration,

 

             16   how does one evaluate this short of having a

 

             17   patient wait a week, a month, a year before they

 

             18   report pain.  I don't see whether you can evaluate

 

             19   that.

 

 

             20             DR. MILLER:  Well, just a matter of

 

             21   clarification, it would seem to me that there is no

 

             22   reference to a time scale here, in other words, how


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            41

 

              1   long after you have identified joint degeneration

 

              2   do you have to develop full-blown osteoarthritis

 

              3   for that to be a reasonable relationship.  I don't

 

              4   see that.  All you have to do is be able to

 

 

              5   ultimately show that there is some relationship no

 

              6   matter how slow the rate may be.

 

              7             Dr. Harris.

 

              8             DR. HARRIS:  I would like to return to Dr.

 

              9   Miller's point regarding the possibility that we

 

 

             10   may be diagnosing something that is not related to

 

             11   arthritis or may not have the same outcome.

 

             12             In preparing for this meeting, I did do

 

             13   some reviewing of the literature that basically the

 

             14   question of could there be other factors involved,

 

 

             15   and one thing that struck me very unusually was a

 

             16   condition called Wilson's disease in which there is

 

             17   actually an accumulation of copper in the joints

 

             18   that leads to swelling, and so forth.

 

             19             I was hoping to find papers that would

 

 

             20   suggest that Wilson's disease is indeed a very good

 

             21   predictor or people who suffer that disease are

 

             22   going to be perhaps coming down early with


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            42

 

              1   arthritis.  I could not find that evidence, but it

 

              2   does indicate that there could be other mitigating

 

              3   factors here other than just one case we are

 

              4   dealing with two different diseases and mixing the

 

 

              5   two of them together may be the wrong thing to look

 

              6   at.

 

              7             DR. CUSH:  Wilson's disease is just like a

 

              8   car accident or whatever provokes the cartilage

 

              9   insult.  The deposition of copper in the cartilage,

 

 

             10   it is the first event that leads to its

 

             11   deterioration.  It is the same as other deposition

 

             12   diseases or other forms of secondary

 

             13   osteoarthritis.

 

             14             DR. HARRIS:  Yes, I think that was the

 

 

             15   point I was trying to make, that there could be

 

             16   other factors.  Perhaps this is addressing the

 

             17   question of the etiology, but it is also addressing

 

             18   the question of a misdiagnosis.

 

             19             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Kale.

 

 

             20             DR. KALE:  Yes, I am one of the proponents

 

             21   of the LDL/osteoarthritis analogy, and I still

 

             22   think that it holds, and I think it holds to a


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            43

 

              1   reasonable degree of medical certainty, because the

 

              2   final common pathway, again necessary but not

 

              3   sufficient, in the development of osteoarthritis

 

              4   has to be some degeneration of cartilage whether

 

 

              5   the degeneration is primary or secondary as in the

 

              6   case hemochromatosis or Wilson's disease or trauma

 

              7   or infection or rheumatoid disease, whatever it

 

              8   happens to be.

 

              9             if there is a reasonable likelihood that a

 

 

             10   product, call it glucosamine or chondroitin

 

             11   sulfate, can preserve the cartilage and reduce its

 

             12   likelihood to a reasonable degree from degenerating

 

             13   and becoming a sufficient, unfortunately, as well

 

             14   as necessary, cause of the syndrome of

 

 

             15   osteoarthritis, if you can prevent that, then, it

 

             16   strikes me it has the same status, without meaning

 

             17   to demean it, as walnuts.  It is a modifiable risk.

 

             18             You modify the risk of osteoarthritis by

 

             19   providing a dietary product that seems to work

 

 

             20   beneficially on cartilage to preserve it.  In that

 

             21   sense, once again, I would retreat back to the

 

             22   analogy as being reasonable.  Walnuts is to LDL as


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            44

 

              1   chondroitin or glucosamine is to cartilage.

 

              2             DR. CUSH:  That latter point, I mean you

 

              3   now have ventured into the proof of intervention

 

              4   having an effect on the biomarker and outcome.

 

 

              5             DR. KALE:  What I am trying to do is say

 

              6   that there is a modifiable risk factor, and that is

 

              7   cartilage, probably, and I agree with what you said

 

              8   earlier, that if you can make a reasonable

 

              9   assumption, I think this is still reasonable, based

 

 

             10   on clinical data, I mean obviously we haven't got

 

             11   the sort of data you have for--there is not a

 

             12   generation of data as there is for cholesterol.

 

             13   So, the best one can do under the circumstances.

 

             14             The other point I would make, by the way,

 

 

             15   it seems to me, because I am old enough to remember

 

             16   this, that coumadin and linoxin, these are drugs

 

             17   that were never tested, we simply believe they

 

             18   worked in the patient populations for whom we used

 

             19   them, and we continue to do so, and that is a

 

 

             20   reasonable presumption, and it seems to be a

 

             21   reasonable presumption.

 

             22             I am making a similar reasonable


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            45

 

              1   presumption about this particular product.

 

              2             DR. MILLER:  Well, we have to be careful

 

              3   using drug examples.  The standard for evaluating

 

              4   drugs is different than the standard for evaluating

 

 

              5   foods.

 

              6             DR. KALE:  Okay.  Vitamin D to rickets.

 

              7             DR. MILLER:  All right.  I will buy that.

 

              8             Dr. McBride.

 

              9             DR. McBRIDE:  I was just going to, in

 

 

             10   answer, say that we are not trying to say that this

 

             11   is the only risk factor, but it is a risk factor.

 

             12   The question is, is it a risk factor.  We are not

 

             13   even asked to say is it modifiable, that is a whole

 

             14   other question, but we are being asked is it a risk

 

 

             15   factor.

 

             16             It seems like to me it would be hard to

 

             17   say that it is not.

 

             18             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Archer.

 

             19             DR. ARCHER:  I just need some

 

 

             20   clarification on a point.  I thought I heard Dr.

 

             21   Cush say that in the diagnosis, he didn't diagnose

 

             22   it radiologically, in which case, I am now talking


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            46

 

              1   about deterioration of cartilage.

 

              2             If that is the case, are we talking about

 

              3   joint space reduction, which is kind of one step

 

              4   back, so we are looking at a predictor of another

 

 

              5   predictor?  So, I am getting a bit confused as to

 

              6   what it is we are actually talking about here.

 

              7             If cartilage deterioration is something

 

              8   that you really don't know about until the patient

 

              9   presents with symptoms in most cases, is that a

 

 

             10   predictor, or is it a reasonable predictor?

 

             11             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Abramson.

 

             12             DR. ABRAMSON:  I guess that comes back to

 

             13   our fundamental discussion, is Alzheimer's disease

 

             14   a disease before a person is overtly demented, or

 

 

             15   is it a pathological event that happens over time,

 

             16   the signal for which symptomatologywise, we see

 

             17   towards the end stage of that process.

 

             18             Again, I think, and we have different

 

             19   views, I think the LDL may not be a good analogy

 

 

             20   because it is truly a surrogate marker of a process

 

             21   that leads to damaged tissue, and one of the

 

             22   reasons that there is discrepancies as to whether


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            47

 

              1   lowering or not is helpful, is it may be not even a

 

              2   true marker of the disease, but a surrogate for

 

              3   something else that a statin is doing, for example,

 

              4   whereas, fibrillated cartilage arguably is the

 

 

              5   earliest phase of the disease that we call

 

              6   osteoarthritis, like the first plaque in the brain

 

              7   of someone who is going to get Alzheimer's disease.

 

              8             I would be certainly willing to say it is

 

              9   a necessary event along the pathway that ultimately

 

 

             10   leads to clinical symptoms, but kind of the

 

             11   medieval discussion we are having now is, is this

 

             12   the disease or is it a marker of the disease.

 

             13   Perhaps that has some legal ramifications with

 

             14   regard to the charge to the committee because I

 

 

             15   would argue that it is not normal joint, it's the

 

             16   first event in a very protracted process, and that

 

             17   process where we are struggling in the field is to

 

             18   figure out, even if we jump beyond the histology

 

             19   and we jump to the imaging and biomarkers, trying

 

 

             20   to predict who is going to get the disease, knowing

 

             21   the earliest markers, has led to a lot of

 

             22   surprises.  Things that we think are going to


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                            48

 

              1   predict bad outcome tend not necessarily to be the

 

              2   case.

 

              3             So, I think, you know, just to come back,

 

              4   I think it is how we define earliest phase of

 

 

              5   disease versus a marker of that disease when we are

 

              6   in the tissue itself that we are kind of having a

 

              7   debate over.

 

              8             DR. MILLER:  Dr. Dwyer.

 

              9             DR. DWYER:  I just wanted to make sure I

 

 

             10   had understood what particularly the

 

             11   rheumatologists had said.