Toward More Rational Risk Analysis: Improving the ranking process in #152

1/14/03


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Table of Contents

Toward More Rational Risk Analysis: Improving the ranking process in #152

What is necessary for rational decision-making?

CVMs proposed qualitative approach does not support rational decisions

Other key ambiguities

Performance problems

A key disconnect

CVMs three factors do not predict risk

Example: Virginiamycin and Synercid

Qualitative vs. Quantitative

Quantitative vs. Qualitative: What factors determining risk are considered?

Quantitative vs. Qualitative

Key Steps in Health Risk Assessment

Conclusions

Recommendations

PPT Slide

Quantifying Risk

Proportion of total VRE isolates that are vanA VREF

Proportion of vanA VREFs Attributed to Chickens

QD-Resistance Levels in Humans

VM-Attributable Risk Calculation

Effects Model

Main Results for US

Timing of Impacts

What drives the numbers?