Evaluation of the Potential for BSE in the United States

1/14/02


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Table of Contents

Evaluation of the Potential for BSE in the United States

What USDA Asked Us to Do

How We Got Involved

Our Approach

Learning from UK Experience

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Important Attributes of Model

Key Assumptions

Key Assumptions

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Analyses

Results: Introduction of 10 Infected Cattle after 20 Years

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Other Importations

Key Uncertainties

Results: Risk Management Options

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Imports from England before 1989

Results: Introduction of Infectivity through UK Imports

Cumulative Distribution for U.S. Cattle Exposure to Cattle Oral ID50s from Animals Imported from England during the 1980s

Cumulative Distribution for the Number of BSE-Clinical Cattle in the Year 2000 for Different Levels of Infectivity Introduced via Import of UK Cattle During the 1980s

Other Results:

Summary

Summary

Summary

Thank You!

Author: George M. Gray