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Vibrio parahaemolyticus Risk Assessment – Appendix 8: Sensitivity Analysis

July 19, 2005

Table of Contents


The tornado plots for the 24 region/season combination from Chapter V. Risk Characterization are provided in Figures A8-1 to A8-24.

Image of Figure A8-1. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Winter Harves

Figure A8-1. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Winter Harvest

Image of Figure A8-2. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Spring Harves

Figure A8-2. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Spring Harvest

Image of Figure A8-3. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Summer Harves

Figure A8-3. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Summer Harvest

Image of A8-4. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Fall Harvest.

Figure A8-4. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Fall Harvest

Image of Figure A8-5. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Winter Ha

Figure A8-5. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Winter Harvest

Image of Figure A8-6. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Spring Ha

Figure A8-6. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Spring Harvest

Image of Figure A8-7. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Summer Ha

Figure A8-7. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Summer Harvest

Image of Figure A8-8. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Fall Harv

Figure A8-8. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Fall Harvest

Image of Figure A8-9. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Winter Harvest.

Figure A8-9. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Winter Harvest

Image of Figure A8-10. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Spring Harvest.

Figure A8-10. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Spring Harvest

Image of Figure A8-11. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Summer Harvest.

Figure A8-11. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Summer Harvest

Image of Figure A8-12. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Fall Harvest.

Figure A8-12. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Fall Harvest

Image of Figure A8-13. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Winter Harvest.

Figure A8-13. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Winter Harvest

Image of Figure A8-14. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Spring Harvest.

Figure A8-14. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Spring Harvest

Image of Figure A8-15. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Summer Harvest.

Figure A8-15. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Summer Harvest

Image of Figure A8-16. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Fall Harvest.

Figure A8-16. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Fall Harvest

Image of Figure A8-17. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Winter

Figure A8-17. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Winter Harvest

Image of Figure A8-18. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest Coast (Dredged) S

Figure A8-18. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest Coast (Dredged) Spring Harvest

Image of Figure A8-19. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Summer

Figure A8-19. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Summer Harvest

Image of Figure A8-20. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Fall Ha

Figure A8-20. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Fall Harvest

Image of Figure A8-21. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Wint

Figure A8-21. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Winter Harvest

Image of Figure A8-22. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Spri

Figure A8-22. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Spring Harvest

Image of Figure A8-23. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Summ

Figure A8-23. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Summer Harvest

Image of Figure A8-24. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log-base-10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Fall

Figure A8-24. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log10 Risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Fall Harvest

Uncertainty Distributions of Predicted Illnesses

The uncertainty of the predicted number of annual V. parahaemolyticus illnesses was analyzed by creating uncertainty distributions for each region/season combination. The shape of the distribution is a consequence of model uncertainties based on 1,000 simulations. The predicted number of illnesses is greatly affected by the combination of the multiple uncertainties of all the inputs used in the model. Figures A8-25 to A8-36 provide the uncertainty distribution graphs for each region/ season combination.

Image of Figure A8-25. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Gulf Coast (Lousianna) Harvests.

Figure A8-25. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Gulf Coast (Lousianna) Harvests

Image of Figure A8-26. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Gulf Coast (Lousianna) Harvests.

Figure A8-26. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Gulf Coast (Lousianna) Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-27. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Gulf Coast (Non-Lousianna) Harvests.

Figure A8-27. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Gulf Coast (Non-Lousianna) Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-28. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Gulf Coast (Non- Lousianna) Harvests.

Figure A8-28. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Gulf Coast (Non- Lousianna) Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-29. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Pacific Coast (dredged) Harvests.

Figure A8-29. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Pacific Coast (dredged) Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-30. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Pacific Coast (dredged) Harvests.

Figure A8-30. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Pacific Coast (dredged) Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-31. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Pacific Coast (intertidal) Harvests.

Figure A8-31. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Pacific Coast (intertidal) Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-32. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Pacific Coast (intertidal) Harvests.

Figure A8-32. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Pacific Coast (intertidal) Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-33. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Mid-Atlantic Harvests.

Figure A8-33. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Mid-Atlantic Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-34. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Mid-Atlantic Harvests.

Figure A8-34. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Mid-Atlantic Harvests.

Image of Analysis.Figure A8-35. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Northeast Atlantic Harvests.

Figure A8-35. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Northeast Atlantic Harvests.

Image of Figure A8-36. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Northeast Atlantic Harvests.

Figure A8-36. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Northeast Atlantic Harvests.


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