# Food

*Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Risk Assessment – Appendix 8: Sensitivity Analysis

July 19, 2005

The tornado plots for the 24 region/season combination from Chapter V. Risk Characterization are provided in Figures A8-1 to A8-24.

Figure A8-1. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Winter Harvest

Figure A8-2. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Spring Harvest

Figure A8-3. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Summer Harvest

Figure A8-4. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (Louisiana) Fall Harvest

Figure A8-5. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Winter Harvest

Figure A8-6. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Spring Harvest

Figure A8-7. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Summer Harvest

Figure A8-8. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Gulf Coast (non-Louisiana) Fall Harvest

Figure A8-9. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Winter Harvest

Figure A8-10. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Spring Harvest

Figure A8-11. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Summer Harvest

Figure A8-12. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Mid-Atlantic Fall Harvest

Figure A8-13. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Winter Harvest

Figure A8-14. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Spring Harvest

Figure A8-15. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Summer Harvest

Figure A8-16. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Northeast Atlantic Fall Harvest

Figure A8-17. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Winter Harvest

Figure A8-18. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest Coast (Dredged) Spring Harvest

Figure A8-19. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Summer Harvest

Figure A8-20. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Dredged) Fall Harvest

Figure A8-21. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Winter Harvest

Figure A8-22. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Spring Harvest

Figure A8-23. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Summer Harvest

Figure A8-24. Tornado Plot of Influential Variability Parameters on log_{10} Risk of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illness per Serving of Raw Oysters from the Pacific Northwest (Intertidal) Fall Harvest

### Uncertainty Distributions of Predicted Illnesses

The uncertainty of the predicted number of annual V. parahaemolyticus illnesses was analyzed by creating uncertainty distributions for each region/season combination. The shape of the distribution is a consequence of model uncertainties based on 1,000 simulations. The predicted number of illnesses is greatly affected by the combination of the multiple uncertainties of all the inputs used in the model. Figures A8-25 to A8-36 provide the uncertainty distribution graphs for each region/ season combination.

Figure A8-25. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Gulf Coast (Lousianna) Harvests

Figure A8-26. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Gulf Coast (Lousianna) Harvests.

Figure A8-27. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Gulf Coast (Non-Lousianna) Harvests.

Figure A8-28. Uncertainty distributions of the annual number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Gulf Coast (Non- Lousianna) Harvests.

Figure A8-29. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Pacific Coast (dredged) Harvests.

Figure A8-30. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Pacific Coast (dredged) Harvests.

Figure A8-31. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Pacific Coast (intertidal) Harvests.

Figure A8-32. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Pacific Coast (intertidal) Harvests.

Figure A8-33. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Mid-Atlantic Harvests.

Figure A8-34. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Mid-Atlantic Harvests.

Figure A8-35. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Spring and Summer Northeast Atlantic Harvests.

Figure A8-36. Uncertainty Distributions of the Annual Number of *Vibrio parahaemolyticus* Illnesses Associated with Fall and Winter Northeast Atlantic Harvests.

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