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Vibrio parahaemolyticus Risk Assessment – Appendix 7: Actual Values Predicted by the Risk Assessment Model

July 19, 2005

Table of Contents


Table A7-1. Mean total Vibrio parahaemolyticus /g at time of harvest
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter51.8537.1917.69128.86
spring937.38483.59273.813055.82
summer2103.32979.05630.537302.99
fall220.55130.2361.02644.27
Gulf non-LAwinter51.9837.2218.36130.85
spring936.04483.60275.103092.20
summer2103.35971.96627.477675.75
fall218.02130.6362.36602.14
Northeast Atlanticwinter3.732.880.838.73
spring42.2528.8514.84111.23
summer229.45147.5382.72593.89
fall32.5823.9412.7880.86
Mid-Atlanticwinter3.452.710.738.73
spring195.75115.0467.23575.09
summer775.35425.29229.722194.98
fall50.9433.6016.76136.33
PNW dredgedwinter0.01880.01320.00280.0556
spring0.81240.48050.11632.2556
summer5.03993.45131.291513.9599
fall0.14550.12590.04960.3021
PNW intertidalwinter0.03860.02530.00470.1174
spring60.7011.050.86292.93
summer652.21293.1850.512571.28
fall2.320.990.246.90

Column 3 = Mean of the uncertainty distribution of "Mean Vp/g";
column 4 = Median of the uncertainty distribution of "Mean Vp/g";
column 5 = 5th %-tile of uncertainty.

Table A7-2. Mean pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus /g at time of harvest
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.08740.06170.02490.2212
spring1.60270.86520.32865.3897
summer3.55581.83770.743312.1087
fall0.38350.22560.07671.1911
Gulf non-LAwinter0.09270.06300.02450.2293
spring1.58580.87300.31825.2191
summer3.58401.83370.729911.8884
fall0.37930.22420.07661.1289
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.00640.00480.00120.0164
spring0.07070.04990.01870.1845
summer0.39280.26160.10351.0930
fall0.05680.04030.01600.1448
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.00590.00430.00110.0139
spring0.33250.20300.08371.0098
summer1.31100.75800.28343.8896
fall0.08730.05750.02290.2391
PNW dredgedwinter0.00040.00030.00010.0014
spring0.01930.01060.00190.0536
summer0.11520.07510.02210.3445
fall0.00340.00270.00080.0081
PNW intertidalwinter0.00090.00050.00010.0031
spring1.44950.22790.01666.0919
summer14.90626.04300.867463.2740
fall0.05070.01970.00400.1493
Table A7-3. Mean total Vp/g at time of cooldown
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter787.24464.6879.532434.14
spring62061.8256490.0323563.18118882.04
summer165199.14153525.2874182.70293861.75
fall15654.3012528.953513.4337311.71
Gulf non-LAwinter372.24221.6053.031215.18
spring44226.1439066.3115734.7288768.61
summer116622.74105585.0748795.43225993.76
fall6881.045084.781206.7618331.58
Northeast Atlanticwinter4.013.060.899.40
spring1403.94893.51140.334506.91
summer6787.284907.131391.1318321.50
fall144.3184.6826.00432.34
Mid-Atlanticwinter3.862.960.8010.00
spring11674.2210137.353379.6325474.28
summer34342.9427305.007394.0984762.05
fall839.96470.6963.202758.27
PNW dredgedwinter0.0220.0150.0030.066
spring25.7173.4650.317138.135
summer287.581108.96217.6671221.362
fall0.6450.3640.1011.868
PNW intertidalwinter0.0470.0280.0050.153
spring415.22852.5721.8792172.929
summer4566.772422.75329.4516931.88
fall10.742.730.4245.15
Table A7-4. Mean pathogenic Vp/g at time of cooldown
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter1.3170.6970.1104.506
spring108.46092.38532.186244.923
summer287.154253.152103.010597.996
fall27.51220.9974.96868.499
Gulf non-LAwinter0.6440.3410.0712.141
spring77.02763.53921.026179.791
summer202.870173.52166.229437.251
fall11.9798.2971.73732.402
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0070.0050.0010.017
spring2.3981.3900.1828.199
summer11.8148.1841.83832.201
fall0.2500.1370.0340.858
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0070.0050.0010.016
spring20.04016.7094.64147.741
summer59.29545.42710.835154.094
fall1.47790.75980.09595.3229
PNW dredgedwinter0.00050.00030.00010.0017
spring0.63630.07210.00542.6605
summer6.48072.16240.283629.1563
fall0.01620.00720.00180.0507
PNW intertidalwinter0.00110.00060.00010.0038
spring10.15141.06900.036352.6528
summer105.04952.5155.167388.076
fall0.2400.0520.0070.989
Table A7-5. Mean total Vibrio parahaemolyticus /g at-retail (post-harvest)
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter286.70165.0429.52924.17
spring22508.7920412.668491.0743159.94
summer59882.8555813.9227055.13106638.93
fall5670.004506.721284.3113710.14
Gulf non-LAwinter135.3878.4218.84429.52
spring16033.7814157.305681.6632574.90
summer42273.9038369.0817786.5381881.76
fall2496.791845.00443.816622.02
Northeast Atlanticwinter1.491.110.313.42
spring510.58319.6750.571667.50
summer2458.301782.36501.606808.45
fall51.9430.379.45160.20
Mid-Atlanticwinter1.401.070.293.56
spring4225.243676.151244.489341.05
summer12456.429914.272677.7430933.37
fall305.85171.5622.89994.08
PNW dredgedwinter0.00800.00540.00110.0242
spring9.13921.25990.113343.0935
summer104.896138.61756.3163428.4740
fall0.23020.13160.03690.6721
PNW intertidalwinter0.01690.01020.00190.0556
spring150.1418.990.66778.34
summer1651.17870.28117.416080.52
fall3.93870.95670.152617.1876
Table A7-6. Mean pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus /g at retail (post-harvest)
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.47500.24780.04011.6221
spring39.289033.443711.547187.6192
summer104.023991.289637.4281217.9466
fall9.95197.58031.755025.0750
Gulf non-LAwinter0.22940.12240.02570.7961
spring27.956523.09717.622564.8276
summer73.460962.989823.9565158.4772
fall4.36203.01040.637812.0473
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.00250.00180.00040.0063
spring0.87770.51080.06383.0233
summer4.28582.99660.679911.7178
fall0.08820.04840.01210.2943
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.00240.00170.00040.0058
spring7.27606.03251.716417.6758
summer21.486416.42243.759954.2711
fall0.54100.25870.03481.9754
PNW dredgedwinter0.000190.000120.000020.00061
spring0.224330.026320.001960.87405
summer2.322470.776590.1001710.78517
fall0.005770.002630.000640.01792
PNW intertidalwinter0.000400.000210.000030.00135
spring3.70980.38430.013718.7625
summer37.755718.91191.8714139.5608
fall0.08600.01770.00260.3021
Table A7-7. Mean dose total Vibrio parahaemolyticus per serving
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter5.79E+043.33E+045.96E+031.87E+05
spring4.55E+064.12E+061.72E+068.72E+06
summer1.21E+071.13E+075.47E+062.15E+07
fall1.15E+069.10E+052.59E+052.77E+06
Gulf non-LAwinter2.73E+041.58E+043.81E+038.68E+04
spring3.24E+062.86E+061.15E+066.58E+06
summer8.54E+067.75E+063.59E+061.65E+07
fall5.04E+053.73E+058.96E+041.34E+06
Northeast Atlanticwinter3.02E+022.24E+026.33E+016.90E+02
spring1.03E+056.46E+041.02E+043.37E+05
summer4.97E+053.60E+051.01E+051.38E+06
fall1.05E+046.13E+031.91E+033.24E+04
Mid-Atlanticwinter2.82E+022.15E+025.92E+017.19E+02
spring8.53E+057.43E+052.51E+051.89E+06
summer2.52E+062.00E+065.41E+056.25E+06
fall6.18E+043.47E+044.62E+032.01E+05
PNW dredgedwinter1.61E+001.09E+002.20E?014.88E+00
spring1.85E+032.54E+022.29E+018.70E+03
summer2.12E+047.80E+031.28E+038.66E+04
fall4.65E+012.66E+017.45E+001.36E+02
PNW intertidalwinter3.41E+002.07E+003.81E?011.12E+01
spring3.03E+043.84E+031.33E+021.57E+05
summer3.34E+051.76E+052.37E+041.23E+06
fall7.96E+021.93E+023.08E+013.47E+03
Table A7-8. Mean dose pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus per serving
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter97.5450.328.06332.70
spring7878.706669.402320.2617773.88
summer20816.0518319.937506.4243704.33
fall1992.931525.87322.835054.04
Gulf non-LAwinter46.6723.765.09163.87
spring5619.134633.611484.9113117.20
summer14731.3412505.114904.3831955.61
fall875.78612.42111.242506.69
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.500.360.091.23
spring178.6499.1912.25616.43
summer862.05583.28130.282462.78
fall17.499.662.4257.16
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.480.350.091.17
spring1456.031204.63327.893468.49
summer4308.163341.36754.4110836.96
fall109.4249.017.09412.18
PNW dredgedwinter0.040.020.000.12
spring42.865.280.40164.75
summer456.71147.6420.822087.10
fall1.180.520.123.63
PNW intertidalwinter0.080.040.010.28
spring739.1372.202.593665.94
summer7498.713679.84374.3929915.03
fall16.873.450.5074.14
Table A7-9. Mean risk per serving
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter2.14E?067.64E?075.20E?088.26E?06
spring1.68E?041.04E?041.20E?055.41E?04
summer4.39E?043.00E?043.40E?051.39E?03
fall4.27E?052.36E?052.07E?061.51E?04
Gulf non-LAwinter1.05E?063.63E?073.05E?084.17E?06
spring1.21E?047.19E?058.31E?063.94E?04
summer3.11E?042.03E?042.32E?051.03E?03
fall1.88E?059.64E?067.44E?076.65E?05
Northeast Atlanticwinter1.11E?085.81E?094.92E?103.47E?08
spring3.64E?061.49E?068.35E?081.49E?05
summer1.78E?059.08E?068.37E?076.86E?05
fall3.98E?071.65E?071.25E?081.62E?06
Mid-Atlanticwinter1.05E?085.61E?094.93E?103.75E?08
spring3.11E?051.84E?051.81E?061.05E?04
summer9.24E?054.88E?054.86E?063.31E?04
fall2.21E?067.82E?074.94E?081.02E?05
PNW dredgedwinter8.11E?103.66E?103.19E?113.22E?09
spring8.68E?078.83E?083.96E?093.08E?06
summer1.01E?052.21E?061.58E?074.15E?05
fall2.65E?088.38E?096.86E?109.46E?08
PNW intertidalwinter1.67E?096.41E?105.50E?116.47E?09
spring1.30E?051.22E?062.27E?085.83E?05
summer1.44E?045.05E?053.17E?066.22E?04
fall3.87E?075.71E?083.05E?091.59E?06
Table A7-10. Number of Illnesses Associated with V. parahaemolyticus
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter6.652.370.1625.60
spring505.02313.0135.961623.72
summer1406.36960.87108.924435.45
fall132.2573.226.42468.44
Gulf non-LAwinter2.850.980.0811.26
spring192.96115.0413.30630.61
summer298.59194.5522.27984.84
fall50.7126.032.01179.53
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0270.0140.0010.083
spring2.951.210.0712.08
summer13.726.990.6452.84
fall1.670.690.056.79
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0120.0060.0010.041
spring4.352.580.2514.76
summer6.933.660.3624.84
fall3.761.330.0817.38
PNW dredgedwinter0.00060.00020.00000.0022
spring0.41650.04240.00191.4795
summer3.930.860.0616.19
fall0.02380.00750.00060.0852
PNW intertidalwinter0.00330.00130.00010.0129
spring18.241.710.0381.56
summer172.6960.663.80746.14
fall1.050.150.014.28
Table A7-11. Number of septicemia cases
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.01550.00550.00040.0598
spring1.17970.73120.08403.7930
summer3.28532.24460.254410.3612
fall0.30890.17100.01501.0943
Gulf non-LAwinter0.00670.00230.00020.0263
spring0.45080.26870.03111.4731
summer0.69750.45450.05202.3006
fall0.11850.06080.00470.4194
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0000620.0000330.0000030.000194
spring0.00690.00280.00020.0282
summer0.03210.01630.00150.1234
fall0.00390.00160.00010.0159
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0000270.0000140.0000010.000096
spring0.01020.00600.00060.0345
summer0.01620.00860.00090.0580
fall0.00880.00310.00020.0406
PNW dredgedwinter0.00000130.00000060.00000010.0000051
spring0.00100.00010.00000.0035
summer0.00920.00200.00010.0378
fall0.0000560.0000180.0000010.000199
PNW intertidalwinter0.00000780.00000300.00000030.0000302
spring0.04260.00400.00010.1905
summer0.40340.14170.00891.7430
fall0.0024430.0003600.0000190.010002
Table A7-12. Mean pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus per gram at-cool down after immediate refrigeration, i.e., ~1 log reduction
RegionSeasonMean (no mitigation)MeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter1.3170.05910.03970.01300.1650
spring108.4604.18552.78370.835911.7680
summer287.15410.07856.69732.346228.6955
fall27.5120.65410.38750.09032.0872
Gulf non-LAwinter0.6440.06030.03830.01370.1721
spring77.0274.20412.87540.817711.9167
summer202.87010.09336.76172.413928.4286
fall11.9790.65740.37900.09272.1358
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0070.002340.001750.000420.00591
spring2.3980.09710.05270.01460.2941
summer11.8140.52170.33610.10891.4607
fall0.2500.03020.02040.00710.0801
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0070.002280.001600.000400.00544
spring20.0400.87530.56770.13502.7134
summer59.2952.55331.58110.45677.6112
fall1.47790.08980.04490.01370.3155
PNW dredgedwinter0.00050.0001690.0001050.000020.000557
spring0.63630.02230.00790.00110.0760
summer6.48070.19730.09770.02320.6755
fall0.01620.001950.001380.000400.00498
PNW intertidalwinter0.00110.000370.000200.000030.00131
spring10.15141.88350.22770.00929.7423
summer105.04920.47579.40940.948484.2898
fall0.2400.03800.01300.00220.1329
Table A7-13. Mean pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus per serving at-retail after immediate refrigeration, i.e., ~1 log reduction mitigation
RegionSeasonMean (no mitigation)MeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.475011.93868.01462.627833.3291
spring39.2890845.4704562.3106168.85082377.1382
summer104.02392035.861352.85473.93615796.4965
fall9.9519132.134278.279218.2489421.6187
Gulf non-LAwinter0.229412.18467.74572.764934.7622
spring27.9565849.2298580.8270165.17852407.1684
summer73.46092038.841365.86487.60495742.5852
fall4.3620132.787876.554318.7229431.4337
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.00250.47340.35360.08461.1934
spring0.877719.620810.63712.949759.4099
summer4.2858105.374967.897822.0022295.0676
fall0.08826.10504.12371.435316.1709
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.00240.46140.32410.08041.0997
spring7.2760176.8161114.678427.2646548.1126
summer21.4864515.7639319.381092.25511537.4702
fall0.541018.14249.06852.766563.7350
PNW dredgedwinter0.000190.03410.02120.00390.1124
spring0.224334.49841.58880.229315.3516
summer2.3224739.857919.74364.6772136.4576
fall0.005770.39310.27850.08121.0063
PNW intertidalwinter0.000400.07480.04090.00660.2647
spring3.7098380.4746.001.851967.93
summer37.75574136.101900.71191.5717026.55
fall0.08607.66942.62150.450026.8481
Table A7-14. Mean pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus per gram at-cool down after 2 log reduction mitigation
RegionSeasonMean (no mitigation)MeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter1.3170.005010.002510.000390.01795
spring108.4600.388580.326580.112340.88743
summer287.1541.030560.909000.362792.15488
fall27.5120.097500.073280.016090.24394
Gulf non-LAwinter0.6440.002280.001140.000270.00753
spring77.0270.277240.229990.075490.65012
summer202.8700.728280.637020.241421.56452
fall11.9790.042530.029500.005580.12375
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0072.44E?051.78E?053.47E?066.04E?05
spring2.3980.008870.004920.000620.03239
summer11.8140.042250.029140.006820.11437
fall0.2500.000990.000450.000120.00337
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0072.44E?051.73E?053.47E?066.09E?05
spring20.0400.073010.060300.015480.17157
summer59.2950.211940.162720.036010.53950
fall1.47790.005060.002320.000330.01933
PNW dredgedwinter0.00051.87E?069.90E?070.00E+006.44E?06
spring0.63630.002130.000250.000020.00918
summer6.48070.023320.007580.000990.09652
fall0.01624.92E?052.60E?055.94E?061.47E?04
PNW intertidalwinter0.00113.98E?062.12E?063.36E?071.36E?05
spring10.15140.034900.004050.000120.19899
summer105.0490.379850.183540.017701.53891
fall0.2400.000690.000190.000030.00231
Table A7-15. Mean pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus at-retail per serving after 2 log reduction mitigation
RegionSeasonMean (no mitigation)MeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.47501.0120.5060.0783.625
spring39.289078.4965.9722.69179.26
summer104.0239208.17183.6273.28435.29
fall9.951919.7014.803.2549.28
Gulf non-LAwinter0.22940.4610.2300.0541.520
spring27.956556.0046.4615.25131.32
summer73.4609147.11128.6848.77316.03
fall4.36208.595.961.1325.00
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.00250.00490.00360.00070.0122
spring0.87771.790.990.136.54
summer4.28588.545.891.3823.10
fall0.08820.20000.09000.02430.6803
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.00240.00490.00350.00070.0123
spring7.276014.7512.183.1334.66
summer21.486442.8132.877.27108.98
fall0.54101.020.470.073.90
PNW dredgedwinter0.000190.000380.000200.000000.00130
spring0.224330.43080.05010.00411.8535
summer2.322474.71071.53040.199719.4966
fall0.005770.00990.00530.00120.0297
PNW intertidalwinter0.000400.000800.000430.000070.00276
spring3.70987.05070.81840.025040.1965
summer37.755776.730737.07523.5762310.8602
fall0.08600.13840.03790.00560.4666
Table A7-16. Mean pathogenic V.parahaemolyticus per gram at cooldown after 4.5 log reduction mitigation
RegionSeasonMean (no mitigation)MeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter1.3171.58E?058.42E?069.90E?075.74E?05
spring108.4601.23E?031.04E?033.55E?042.80E?03
summer287.1543.26E?032.87E?031.15E?036.80E?03
fall27.5123.08E?042.37E?045.00E?057.68E?04
Gulf non-LAwinter0.6447.19E?063.47E?064.95E?072.43E?05
spring77.0278.76E?047.24E?042.39E?042.04E?03
summer202.8702.30E?032.01E?037.52E?044.95E?03
fall11.9791.35E?049.21E?051.83E?053.95E?04
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0078.32E?080.00E+00.00E+004.95E?07
spring2.3982.80E?051.53E?051.49E?061.01E?04
summer11.8141.34E?049.11E?052.08E?053.67E?04
fall0.2503.15E?061.49E?060.00E+001.19E?05
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0077.52E?080.00E+00.00E+004.95E?07
spring20.0402.31E?041.92E?045.05E?055.44E?04
summer59.2956.70E?045.20E?041.13E?041.70E?03
fall1.47791.60E?057.67E?069.65E?076.04E?05
PNW dredgedwinter0.00055.45E?090.00E+00.00E+000.00E+00
spring0.63636.88E?069.90E?070.00E+002.99E?05
summer6.48077.40E?052.40E?052.97E?063.07E?04
fall0.01621.65E?070.00E+000.00E+009.90E?07
PNW intertidalwinter0.00111.26E?086.70E?091.06E?094.32E?08
spring10.15141.10E?041.28E?053.92E?076.29E?04
summer105.0491.20E?035.80E?045.60E?054.87E?03
fall0.2402.17E?065.94E?078.71E?087.31E?06
Table A7-17. Mean pathogenic V.parahaemolyticus per serving at-retail after 4.5 log reduction mitigation
RegionSeasonMean (no mitigation)MeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.47500.003200.001700.000200.01160
spring39.28900.248280.209250.071780.56649
summer104.02390.658270.578800.232361.37454
fall9.95190.062240.047850.010100.15521
Gulf non-LAwinter0.22940.001450.000700.000100.00491
spring27.95650.176970.146300.048190.41267
summer73.46090.465340.406250.151980.99969
fall4.36200.027240.018600.003700.07971
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.00251.68E?050.00E+000.00E+001.00E?04
spring0.87770.005650.003100.000300.02041
summer4.28580.027060.018400.004200.07422
fall0.08820.000640.000300.000000.00240
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.00241.52E?050.00E+000.00E+001.00E?04
spring7.27600.046680.038700.010200.10990
summer21.48640.135340.105100.022890.34281
fall0.54100.003240.001550.000200.01221
PNW dredgedwinter0.000191.10E?060.00E+000.00E+000.00E+00
spring0.224330.001390.000200.000000.00603
summer2.322470.014940.004850.000600.06202
fall0.005773.33E?050.00E+000.00E+002.00E?04
PNW intertidalwinter0.000402.54E?061.35E?062.15E?078.72E?06
spring3.70980.022300.002590.000080.12711
summer37.75570.242640.117240.011310.98303
fall0.08600.000440.000120.000020.00148
Table A7-18. # of annual illnesses after immediate refrigeration, i.e. ~1 log reduction
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.800.410.042.53
spring54.0628.502.98185.27
summer138.8773.657.64492.47
fall8.813.990.3433.51
Gulf non-LAwinter0.720.350.042.31
spring28.9514.381.5298.14
summer41.6222.052.55144.08
fall7.653.430.3227.77
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.02440.01340.00110.0814
spring0.33050.13740.01291.2325
summer1.71320.87810.09866.1876
fall0.55140.29550.02901.8030
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.01060.00580.00050.0372
spring0.52670.25280.02422.0308
summer0.82640.38390.03953.1570
fall0.63520.27070.02502.4228
PNW dredgedwinter4.97E?042.27E?041.89E?051.97E?03
spring0.05090.01240.00090.1594
summer0.36890.12160.01021.4661
fall0.00810.00400.00040.0307
PNW intertidalwinter0.00320.00130.00010.0126
spring9.981.040.0249.94
summer95.7131.731.94422.48
fall0.490.110.011.70
Table A7-19. # of annual illnesses after 2 log reduction mitigation
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.07040.02450.00170.2957
spring5.203.150.3516.69
summer14.569.671.1046.88
fall1.340.720.064.98
Gulf non-LAwinter0.02790.01010.00090.1085
spring1.96841.15010.12996.3499
summer3.06841.94920.218810.3400
fall0.51340.25630.02091.8016
Northeast Atlanticwinter2.54E?041.38E?041.13E?058.67E?04
spring0.03070.01200.00080.1254
summer0.13830.07070.00700.5312
fall0.01800.00640.00050.0732
Mid-Atlanticwinter1.13E?045.87E?055.36E?064.08E?04
spring0.04490.02540.00270.1599
summer0.07040.03660.00380.2553
fall0.03670.01250.00080.1579
PNW dredgedwinter5.51E?062.29E?060.00E+002.19E?05
spring4.73E?034.07E?041.72E?051.69E?02
summer0.04410.00910.00060.1983
fall2.10E?047.20E?056.61E?067.42E?04
PNW intertidalwinter3.35E?051.17E?050.00E+001.39E?04
spring0.22090.01780.00031.0663
summer2.12650.63510.03949.3803
fall0.00850.00160.00010.0289
Table A7-20. # of annual illnesses after 4.5 log reduction mitigation
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter2.23E?047.63E?053.87E?069.80E?04
spring1.65E?029.99E?031.09E?035.32E?02
summer4.61E?023.06E?023.49E?031.50E?01
fall4.24E?032.29E?031.98E?041.60E?02
Gulf non-LAwinter8.79E?053.10E?051.43E?063.49E?04
spring6.22E?033.64E?034.11E?042.02E?02
summer9.71E?036.13E?037.00E?043.24E?02
fall1.63E?038.05E?046.58E?055.79E?03
Northeast Atlanticwinter8.57E?070.00E+000.00E+004.92E?06
spring9.66E?053.61E?051.77E?063.90E?04
summer4.39E?042.20E?042.09E?051.64E?03
fall5.63E?051.94E?050.00E+002.34E?04
Mid-Atlanticwinter3.40E?070.00E+000.00E+002.26E?06
spring1.42E?048.03E?058.54E?065.09E?04
summer2.23E?041.16E?041.17E?058.03E?04
fall1.16E?044.02E?051.45E?065.16E?04
PNW dredgedwinter1.49E?080.00E+000.00E+000.00E+00
spring1.49E?051.11E?060.00E+005.09E?05
summer1.40E?042.75E?051.50E?066.47E?04
fall6.71E?070.00E+000.00E+004.16E?06
PNW intertidalwinter9.18E?080.00E+000.00E+000.00E+00
spring7.04E?045.40E?050.00E+003.47E?03
summer6.77E?032.04E?031.27E?043.01E?02
fall2.67E?053.37E?060.00E+001.09E?04
Total 0.093   
Table A7-21. Percent of harvest exceeding 10,000/g (1,000/g in PNW) at harvest
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.0284%0.0000%0.0000%0.1500%
spring1.1798%0.5650%0.1795%4.1100%
summer2.8700%1.3850%0.5895%9.5050%
fall0.2293%0.0900%0.0100%0.8900%
Gulf non-LAwinter0.0297%0.0000%0.0000%0.1600%
spring1.1838%0.5700%0.1700%4.2010%
summer2.8658%1.3950%0.5800%9.5640%
fall0.2279%0.0900%0.0100%0.9200%
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0004%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.0261%0.0000%0.0000%0.1300%
summer0.2057%0.0600%0.0100%0.8815%
fall0.0154%0.0000%0.0000%0.0800%
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0004%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.2021%0.0800%0.0100%0.7905%
summer0.9556%0.3950%0.0895%3.4910%
fall0.0391%0.0100%0.0000%0.1805%
PNW dredgedwinter0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.0023%0.0000%0.0000%0.0100%
summer0.0235%0.0000%0.0000%0.1200%
fall0.0001%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
PNW intertidalwinter0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.4398%0.1200%0.0000%2.0205%
summer4.0570%3.2850%0.7200%10.9245%
fall0.0173%0.0000%0.0000%0.0700%
Table A7-22. Percent of harvest exceeding 10,000/g (1,000/g in PNW) at cooldown
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.7187%0.4900%0.0700%2.0805%
spring27.0453%26.4400%16.0095%40.4635%
summer59.3192%59.2150%45.3275%73.5945%
fall7.2283%6.4100%2.5395%14.1435%
Gulf non-LAwinter0.3857%0.2300%0.0200%1.2805%
spring22.7366%22.2350%12.9260%35.0890%
summer52.1745%51.8150%37.4160%67.1665%
fall4.3686%3.7850%1.2295%9.0805%
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0005%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring1.0107%0.8000%0.1500%2.5305%
summer7.0001%6.1250%2.0170%14.9175%
fall0.1326%0.0800%0.0100%0.4500%
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0006%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring5.8520%5.5350%2.7985%9.7605%
summer22.9236%22.0350%9.9590%39.5220%
fall0.5801%0.4300%0.0600%1.6200%
PNW dredgedwinter0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.1645%0.0200%0.0000%0.8110%
summer1.7676%1.2100%0.1600%5.5115%
fall0.0043%0.0000%0.0000%0.0200%
PNW intertidalwinter0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring1.4599%0.6150%0.0000%5.9010%
summer11.8406%10.8000%3.2690%25.2505%
fall0.0662%0.0300%0.0000%0.2400%
Table A7-23. Percent of harvest exceeding 10,000/g (1,000/g in PNW) at retail
RegionSeasonMeanMedian5th %-tile95th %-tile
Gulf LAwinter0.3139%0.1900%0.0100%1.0005%
spring17.5404%16.8500%9.0630%28.5542%
summer42.9736%42.5050%27.9665%59.0720%
fall4.4157%3.7900%1.2795%9.2920%
Gulf non-LAwinter0.1489%0.0800%0.0000%0.5305%
spring13.9662%13.3350%6.7100%23.4855%
summer35.3920%34.6300%21.5750%51.4820%
fall2.3744%1.9500%0.5395%5.4900%
Northeast Atlanticwinter0.0001%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.5058%0.3700%0.0500%1.4620%
summer3.2025%2.5700%0.6785%7.8675%
fall0.0506%0.0300%0.0000%0.1805%
Mid-Atlanticwinter0.0001%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring3.4714%3.1900%1.3295%6.4715%
summer13.0003%11.8700%4.2245%25.9300%
fall0.2912%0.1900%0.0100%0.9100%
PNW dredgedwinter0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.0682%0.0100%0.0000%0.3500%
summer0.7804%0.4500%0.0400%2.7115%
fall0.0014%0.0000%0.0000%0.0100%
PNW intertidalwinter0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%0.0000%
spring0.7493%0.2300%0.0000%3.3505%
summer6.7454%5.7250%1.4190%16.7305%
fall0.0275%0.0100%0.0000%0.1100%
Table A7-24. Effect of Compliance Levels on the Effectiveness of Controlling Total Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Oysters at cooldown for Gulf Coast Louisiana Summer
Total Vp/g
At-Retaila
Compliance LevelbReduction in Mean Risk
per Serving (%)
Harvest Diverted (%)cIllness Averted (%)d
100/g50%50.0%49.0%74.5%
70%70.1%68.6%90.6%
90%90.0%88.2%98.8%
100%~100%98.0%~100%
1000/g50%50.0%43.5%71.7%
70%70.0%60.9%88.3%
90%90.0%78.3%97.8%
100%~100%87.0%~100%
5000/g50%49.8%34.5%67.1%
70%69.9%48.3%84.4%
90%89.7%62.1%96.1%
100%99.6%69.0%99.9%
10,000/g50%49.5%29.7%64.6%
70%69.4%41.5%82.1%
90%89.2%53.4%95.0%
100%99.0%59.3%99.7%
100,000/g50%45.3%13.9%53.4%
70%63.4%19.4%71.2%
90%81.6%25.0%86.9%
100%90.6%27.8%94.1%

a Assumes that the level of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) is known in oysters at the time of harvest.

b The compliance level is the percentage oyster harvest, which is removed from the raw oyster consumption market or subjected to preventive controls; this percentage is assumed to have the same distribution of Vp/g as under the baseline (no mitigation) scenario.

c Refers to the harvest that would need to be diverted from the raw market or subjected to preventive controls.

d Assuming that the volume of product available for raw consumption is impacted (i.e., reduced) according to the estimate of the % of harvest lost from the raw market or subjected to preventive controls.


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