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Listeria monocytogenes Risk Assessment: Appendix 10: Additional Risk Characterization Information

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FDA/Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition
USDA/Food Safety and Inspection Service
September 2003

(Also available in PDF)

Contents


 

Table A10-1. Predicted Mean Number of Cases of Listeriosis per Serving for Each Food Category and Subpopulation
Food CategoryPredicted Number of Cases of Listeriosis per Servinga
Intermediate-AgebElderlyPerinatalcTotal
PercentilesPercentilesPercentilesPercentiles
Mean5th95thMean5th95thMean5th95thMean5th95th
SEAFOODSmoked Seafood3.1x10-8 8.8x10-111.2x10-72.6x10-79.7x10-101.0x10-61.1x10-54.3x10-84.6x10-58.4x10-83.0x10-103.3x10-7
Raw Seafood8.6x10-111.1x10-172.9x10-108.9x10-101.7x10-142.9x10-96.8x10-87.4x10-122.0x10-71.4x10-107.4x10-154.6x10-10
Preserved Fish9.6x10-105.5x10-202.6x10-98.2x10-93.9x10-172.2x10-83.6x10-72.1x10-149.9x10-72.7x10-96.9x10-177.5x10-9
Cooked RTE Crustaceans5.4x10-92.5x10-102.1x10-84.2x10-82.4x10-91.6x10-71.6x10-69.7x10-86.1x10-61.2x10-86.5x10-104.6x10-8
PRODUCEVegetables1.2x10-111.5x10-196.3x10-111.1x10-103.7x10-165.7x10-105.8x10-91.4x10-133.1x10-83.6x10-112.8x10-161.9x10-10
Fruits1.3x10-96.0x10-209.6x10-98.0x10-95.3x10-175.7x10-84.3x10-71.3x10-143.0x10-63.2x10-94.5x10-172.3x10-8
DAIRYFresh Soft Cheese5.0x10-104.6x10-132.1x10-94.1x10-95.0x10-121.7x10-81.6x10-72.6x10-107.0x10-76.9x10-108.0x10-132.9x10-9
Soft Unripened Cheese3.1x10-98.4x10-141.6x10-82.5x10-87.2x10-131.2x10-71.1x10-64.8x10-115.3x10-68.9x10-92.8x10-134.4x10-8
Soft Ripened Cheese2.7x10-101.8x10-211.3x10-92.4x10-93.3x10-181.1x10-81.2x10-73.5x10-155.2x10-75.6x10-107.9x10-182.6x10-9
Semi-soft Cheese1.3x10-109.3x10-172.9x10-101.2x10-95.5x10-152.7x10-96.3x10-89.2x10-131.4x10-72.6x10-102.5x10-155.8x10-10
Hard Cheese1.2x10-125.3x10-471.9x10-121.1x10-115.8x10-391.9x10-118.9x10-103.4x10-321.3x10-93.1x10-122.5x10-355.5x10-12
Processed Cheese5.2x10-133.2x10-302.3x10-125.1x10-128.8x10-252.2x10-114.8x10-106.6x10-201.4x10-91.4x10-125.4x10-236.0x10-12
Pasteurized Fluid Milk1.2x10-92.8x10-115.7x10-98.6x10-92.5x10-103.9x10-83.8x10-71.2x10-81.7x10-62.7x10-97.5x10-111.3x10-8
Unpasteurized Fluid Milk1.6x10-83.5x10-116.8x10-81.2x10-73.4x10-105.1x10-75.5x10-61.7x10-82.3x10-53.8x10-89.7x10-111.6x10-7
Ice Cream/Frozen
Dairy Products
2.2x10-122.7x10-351.8x10-121.7x10-111.4x10-281.9x10-117.4x10-102.7x10-231.3x10-95.7x10-121.7x10-266.3x10-12
Cultured Milk Products6.6x10-122.4x10-401.7x10-116.4x10-116.5x10-331.7x10-103.8x10-95.1x10-269.9x10-91.8x10-113.3x10-294.9x10-11
High Fat and Other
Dairy Products
2.2x10-91.0x10-108.2x10-91.6x10-88.9x10-105.7x10-85.8x10-73.7x10-82.0x10-65.3x10-92.9x10-101.9x10-8
MEATSFrankfurters (reheated)8.3x10-114.2x10-153.4x10-108.5x10-108.6x10-133.4x10-96.1x10-82.1x10-102.6x10-72.0x10-102.7x10-138.0x10-10
Frankfurters (not reheated)7.1x10-83.1x10-92.8x10-76.1x10-73.2x10-82.3x10-62.2x10-51.3x10-68.3x10-51.4x10-77.1x10-95.2x10-7
Dry/Semi-Dry
Fermented Sausages
5.7x10-106.8x10-202.7x10-95.2x10-92.0x10-162.4x10-82.5x10-75.1x10-141.1x10-61.4x10-91.5x10-166.3x10-9
Deli Meats3.0x10-86.8x10-94.1x10-82.7x10-75.8x10-83.9x10-71.1x10-53.2x10-61.4x10-57.0x10-81.7x10-89.9x10-8
Pâté and Meat Spreads3.9x10-81.0x10-91.4x10-73.2x10-71.1x10-81.1x10-61.3x10-54.7x10-74.5x10-59.6x10-83.1x10-93.3x10-7
COMBINATION
FOODS
Deli-type Salads4.7x10-111.8x10-311.3x10-103.5x10-103.3x10-251.2x10-91.4x10-89.3x10-205.5x10-81.3x10-108.0x10-234.1x10-10
aThis table provides estimates of the mean rate of listeriosis per serving and the confidence intervals about that estimate.
bThe Intermediate-age group includes susceptible populations not captured in the other groups.
cThe Perinatal population is a susceptible population that includes fetuses and neonates. Exposure occurs in utero from contaminated food eaten by the pregnant woman. The predicted cases are predominately neonatal, therefore to estimate the perinatal cases presented in this table, an exposure period of 10 days was used. The value of 10 approximately corresponds to the mean of the triangle distribution (1, 7, 30) used in the simulation.

 

Table A10-2. Predicted Mean Number of Cases of Listeriosis per Annum for Each Food Category and Subpopulation
Food CategoryPredicted Number of Cases of Listeriosis per Annuma
Intermediate-AgebElderlyPerinatalcTotal
PercentilesPercentilesPercentilesPercentiles
Mean5th95thMean5th95thMean5th95thMean5th95th
SEAFOODSmoked Seafood5.1<0.119.410.6<0.143.21.4<0.15.817.20.168.1
Raw Seafood<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1
Preserved Fish0.1<0.10.20.2<0.10.5<0.1<0.10.10.3<0.10.8
Cooked Ready-to-Eat Crustaceans2.50.110.03.50.213.20.6<0.12.26.60.425.7
PRODUCEVegetables0.8<0.14.31.9<0.19.70.3<0.11.63.0<0.115.7
Fruits47.3<0.1351.495.8<0.1680.412.2<0.185.4155.2<0.11127.7
DAIRYFresh Soft Cheese<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1<0.10.2
Soft Unripened Cheese10.5<0.152.326.0<0.1128.82.8<0.113.639.3<0.1193.5
Soft Ripened Cheese0.5<0.12.10.5<0.12.10.2<0.10.71.1<0.14.9
Semi-soft Cheese0.2<0.10.50.2<0.10.40.1<0.10.20.5<0.11.1
Hard Cheese<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1
Processed Cheese<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1
Pasteurized Fluid Milk85.92.0410.1127.93.7584.420.90.795.8234.76.51084.6
Unpasteurized Fluid Milk6.0<0.124.79.1<0.138.31.5<0.16.516.6<0.169.2
Ice Cream/Frozen Dairy Products<0.1<0.1<0.10.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1<0.10.1
Cultured Milk Products<0.1<0.10.10.1<0.10.2<0.1<0.1<0.10.1<0.10.4
High Fat and Other Dairy Products35.31.7135.066.23.8241.37.30.525.3108.86.0398.9
MEATSFrankfurters (reheated)0.5<0.11.90.5<0.12.00.3<0.11.11.2<0.14.9
Frankfurters (not reheated)29.91.3119.427.01.4103.07.30.426.964.23.3245.4
Dry/Semi-Dry Fermented Sausages0.9<0.14.11.3<0.16.00.3<0.11.32.5<0.111.2
Deli Meats528.1120.6736.4767.1164.61106.2146.644.5197.01441.7341.22038.2
Pâté and Meat Spreads3.80.113.26.60.223.51.0<0.13.411.40.439.5
COMBINATION
FOODS
Deli-type Salads0.5<0.11.31.1<0.13.70.1<0.10.41.7<0.15.4
aThis table provides estimates of the mean rate of listeriosis per annum and the confidence intervals about that estimate.
bThe intermediate-age group includes susceptible populations not captured in other goups, such as cancer, AIDS, and transplant patients, for whom there are insufficient data to consider as a separate population.
cThe Perinatal population is a susceptible population that includes fetuses and neonates. Exposure occurs in utero from contaminated food eaten by the pregnant woman.

 

Table A10-3. Predicted Median Number of Deaths From Listeriosis per Serving Basis for Each Food Category and Subpopulation
Food CategoryPredicted Number of Deaths of Listeriosis per Servinga
Intermediate-AgebElderlyPerinatalcTotal
PercentilesPercentilesPercentilesPercentiles
Median5th95thMedian5th95thMedian5th95thMedian5th95th
SEAFOODSmoked Seafood1.9x10-107.8x10-121.1x10-085.2x10-092.6x10-102.8x10-071.8x10-089.5x10-101.0x10-061.3x10-096.5x10-117.0x10-08
Raw Seafood1.1x10-129.7x10-192.6x10-113.5x10-114.5x10-157.8x10-101.5x10-101.6x10-134.4x10-092.5x10-121.4x10-156.0x10-11
Preserved Fish5.6x10-134.9x10-212.3x10-101.8x10-111.0x10-176.0x10-099.0x10-114.6x10-162.2x10-085.0x10-121.4x10-171.6x10-09
Cooked RTE Crustaceans1.9x10-102.2x10-111.9x10-095.0x10-096.4x10-104.4x10-081.6x10-082.1x10-091.3x10-071.0x10-091.3x10-108.8x10-09
PRODUCEVegetables7.4x10-141.4x10-205.6x10-122.2x10-121.0x10-161.5x10-101.1x10-113.1x10-156.7x10-105.8x10-135.9x10-173.9x10-11
Fruits4.4x10-135.3x10-218.5x10-101.4x10-111.4x10-171.5x10-086.2x10-112.9x10-166.7x10-084.2x10-129.6x10-184.8x10-09
DAIRYFresh Soft Cheese1.1x10-114.0x10-141.8x10-102.8x10-101.3x10-124.6x10-099.1x10-105.7x10-121.5x10-082.2x10-111.2x10-133.7x10-10
Soft Unripened Cheese5.2x10-117.5x10-151.4x10-091.3x10-091.9x10-133.3x10-084.4x10-091.0x10-121.2x10-073.7x10-106.1x10-149.5x10-09
Soft Ripened Cheese1.8x10-131.6x10-221.1x10-105.9x10-128.8x10-193.1x10-092.9x10-117.7x10-171.1x10-089.5x10-131.4x10-184.7x10-10
Semi-soft Cheese2.6x10-138.2x10-182.6x10-118.0x10-121.5x10-157.3x10-103.4x10-112.0x10-143.2x10-091.2x10-124.0x10-161.0x10-10
Hard Cheese3.0x10-164.7x10-481.7x10-132.5x10-151.5x10-395.1x10-121.8x10-147.5x10-342.8x10-116.8x10-165.0x10-361.1x10-12
Processed Cheese1.3x10-152.8x10-312.1x10-132.5x10-142.4x10-255.9x10-121.5x10-131.4x10-213.1x10-117.9x10-151.2x10-231.2x10-12
Pasteurized Fluid Milk3.9x10-112.5x10-125.1x10-109.0x10-106.6x10-111.1x10-083.2x10-092.6x10-103.8x10-082.1x10-101.5x10-112.4x10-09
Unpasteurized Fluid Milk2.6x10-103.1x10-126.1x10-096.0x10-099.2x10-111.4x10-072.2x10-083.8x10-105.1x10-071.4x10-092.0x10-113.2x10-08
Ice Cream/Frozen
Dairy Products
1.1x10-152.4x10-361.6x10-132.5x10-143.9x10-295.1x10-121.4x10-136.0x10-252.8x10-111.0x10-143.8x10-271.3x10-12
Cultured Milk Products8.4x10-162.1x10-411.5x10-121.5x10-141.7x10-334.5x10-111.0x10-131.1x10-272.2x10-106.6x10-156.5x10-309.9x10-12
High Fat and Other
Dairy Products
9.2x10-119.1x10-127.3x10-102.2x10-092.4x10-101.5x10-086.9x10-098.2x10-104.4x10-085.7x10-106.2x10-114.0x10-09
MEATSFrankfurters (reheated)2.4x10-123.7x10-163.0x10-117.1x10-112.3x10-139.1x10-103.4x10-104.5x10-125.6x10-091.1x10-115.7x10-141.5x10-10
Frankfurters (not reheated)2.9x10-092.7x10-102.5x10-087.9x10-088.6x10-096.3x10-072.4x10-072.9x10-081.8x10-061.2x10-081.3x10-099.2x10-08
Dry/Semi-Dry
Fermented Sausages
5.3x10-136.0x10-212.4x10-101.7x10-115.3x10-176.5x10-098.1x10-111.1x10-152.4x10-083.4x10-122.8x10-171.2x10-09
Deli Meats2.9x10-096.0x10-103.7x10-098.0x10-081.6x10-081.0x10-072.6x10-077.1x10-083.1x10-071.5x10-083.2x10-091.9x10-08
Pâté and Meat Spreads1.1x10-099.2x10-111.2x10-082.9x10-082.9x10-093.0x10-079.8x10-081.0x10-089.9x10-076.5x10-096.5x10-106.9x10-08
COMBINATION FOODSDeli-type Salads1.5x10-141.6x10-321.1x10-113.8x10-138.8x10-263.2x10-101.9x10-122.0x10-211.2x10-091.2x10-131.6x10-239.1x10-11
aThis table provides estimates of the median rate of listeriosis per serving and the confidence intervals about that estimate.
bThe Intermediate-age group includes susceptible populations not captured in other groups, such as cancer, AIDS, and transplant patients, for whom there are insufficient data to consider as a separate population.
cThe Perinatal population is a susceptible population that includes fetuses and neonates. Exposure occurs in utero from contaminated food eaten by the pregnant woman. (Estimates for the perinatal group can be made by multiplying the neonatal values by 2.5.) To estimate the number of servings in each food category for the perinatal group, the number of servings for the intermediate-aged population was multiplied by 0.0174 (fraction of pregnant women) and 3/12 (for exposure during the last three months of pregnancy).

 

Table A10-4. Predicted Median Number of Deaths From Listeriosis per Annum Basis for Each Food Category and Subpopulation
Food CategoryPredicted Number of Deaths of Listeriosis per Annuma
Intermediate-AgebElderlyPerinatalcTotal
PercentilesPercentilesPercentilesPercentiles
Median5th95thMedian5th95thMedian5th95thMedian5th95th
SEAFOODSmoked Seafood<0.1<0.11.70.2<0.111.6<0.1<0.11.10.3<0.114.4
Raw Seafood<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
Preserved Fish<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.2
Cooked RTE Crustaceans0.1<0.10.90.40.13.50.1<0.10.40.60.14.9
PRODUCEVegetables<0.1<0.10.4<0.1<0.12.6<0.1<0.10.3<0.1<0.13.3
Fruits<0.1<0.131.10.2<0.1182.4<0.1<0.116.90.2<0.1231.4
DAIRYFresh Soft Cheese<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
Soft Unripened Cheese0.2<0.14.61.4<0.134.50.10<0.12.71.7<0.141.9
Soft Ripened Cheese<0.1<0.10.2<0.1<0.10.6<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.10.9
Semi-soft Cheese<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.2
Hard Cheese<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
Processed Cheese<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
Pasteurized Fluid Milk2.80.236.313.41.0156.71.60.118.918.11.3208.7
Unpasteurized Fluid Milk0.1<0.12.20.5<0.110.30.1<0.11.30.6<0.113.8
Ice Cream/Frozen Dairy Products<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
Cultured Milk Products<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1
High Fat and Other Dairy Products1.50.212.09.41.064.70.80.15.011.81.382.0
MEATSFrankfurters (reheated)<0.1<0.10.2<0.1<0.10.5<0.1<0.10.20.1<0.10.9
Frankfurters (not reheated)1.20.110.63.50.427.60.70.15.35.40.642.9
Dry/Semi-Dry Fermented Sausages<0.1<0.10.4<0.1<0.11.6<0.1<0.10.3<0.1<0.12.2
Deli Meats52.110.765.2227.844.1296.631.88.838.9311.665.5400.4
Pâté and Meat Spreads0.1<0.11.20.60.16.30.1<0.10.70.80.18.1
COMBINATION FOODSDeli-type Salads<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.11.0<0.1<0.10.1<0.1<0.11.2
aThis table provides estimates of the median rate of listeriosis per annum and the confidence intervals about that estimate.
bThe Intermediate-age group includes susceptible populations not captured in other groups, such as cancer, AIDS, and transplant patients, for whom there are insufficient data to consider as a separate population.
cThe perinatal population is a susceptible population that includes fetuses and neonates. Exposure occurs in utero from contaminated food eaten by the pregnant woman.