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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

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The Framework: Technology Categories

The forecast employed a framework of six broad technology themes, chosen by the expert participants to cover a large portion of the expected innovation in medical devices: 

  • electronic technologies
  • synthetic (artificial) organs, tissues, and combination products
  • invasiveness-reducing technologies
  • decentralized care technologies
  • demographically-targeted technologies
  • diagnostic, detection, and monitoring technologies
 
Within that framework, the forecast identifies broad emerging technology areas, and more specific product groups:
 
6 TREND THEMES > 24 TECHNOLOGY AREAS > 91 SPECIFIC PRODUCT GROUPS
 
The Specific Perspective: 91 Specific Product Groups
 
Working individually, the expert participants identified 501 “significant examples” of specific new products likely to emerge in the next decade from the six Trend Themes. We combined duplicate predictions made by two or more participants to arrive at 91 Specific Product Groups. These 91 products covered 76% of the original 501 individual predictions. The substantial overlap of the initial 501 independent predictions, and the validation of each of the final 91 by multiple experts suggested a significant convergence of perspective.
 
The Broader Perspective: 24 Technology Areas
 
We then combined the 91 products into 24 broader Technology Areas. For example, we collected individual types of robotic devices into a “robotic devices” technology area, and individual types of medical imaging systems into an “imaging devices/systems” technology area.